Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5733-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5733-2026
Research article
 | 
11 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 11 Nov 2026

Quantifying the attributable impact of the February 2018 sudden stratospheric warming on mortality in the Nordics and United Kingdom

Philip Rupp, Liliana Vázquez Fernández, William J. M. Seviour, and Thomas Birner

Data sets

Temperature-related mortality exposure-response functions for 854 cities in Europe Pierre Masselot and Antonio Gasparrini https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10288665

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Short summary
We study mortality impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) via counterfactual ensemble simulations. SSWs robustly increase the likelihood of cold spells in Northern Europe, but the socio-economic effects remain poorly quantified. Using re-forecasts of the 2018 SSW and mortality records, we attribute hundreds of expected deaths in the UK and Nordics to this event. The strongest impacts emerge from combined post-SSW cold anomalies and heightened mortality sensitivity to these anomalies.
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