Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5541-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5541-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
Research article
 | 
03 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 03 Nov 2026

Multi-scale dynamics and mesoscale drivers of the catastrophic September 2022 Marche (central Italy) flood

Matteo Berton, Elenio Avolio, and Mario Marcello Miglietta

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Cited articles

Avolio, E., Nisi, L., Panziera, L., Peyraud, L., and Miglietta, M. M.: A multi-sensor and modeling analysis of a severe convective storm in Lake Maggiore area (northwestern Italy), Atmos. Res., 242, 105008, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105008, 2020. a
Bendia, F., Farabollini, P., Materazzi, M., and Bufalini, M.: The 15 September 2022 floods in northern Marche (Central Italy): disaster analysis, case studies and mitigation strategies for hydro-geomorphological hazard, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1119–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1119-2026, 2026. a
Berton, M.: Codes and Configurations for: Multi-scale dynamics and mesoscale drivers of the catastrophic September 2022 Marche flood (Version 1), Zenodo [software], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22808447, 2026. a
Bolton, D.: The computation of equivalent potential temperature, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1046–1053, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1046:TCOEPT>2.0.CO;2, 1980. a
Czernecki, B., Taszarek, M., and Szuster, P.: thundeR: Computation and Visualisation of Atmospheric Convective Parameters, GitHub [code], https://bczernecki.github.io/thundeR/ (last access: 27 October 2026), 2025. a
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To understand the 2022 Marche flood, we used a high-resolution weather numerical model. We found that the Apennine mountains anchored the storm, causing continuous, extreme rainfall. Furthermore, our tests reveal the storm's extreme sensitivity to initial and boundary conditions. We show that a slight timing mismatch between the low-level incoming moisture and upper-level dynamics produces completely different rain patterns, making these catastrophic events incredibly difficult to predict.
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