Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5541-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Multi-scale dynamics and mesoscale drivers of the catastrophic September 2022 Marche (central Italy) flood
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- Final revised paper (published on 03 Nov 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 29 Jul 2026)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-2573', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Aug 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Matteo Berton, 25 Sep 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-2573', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Sep 2026
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Matteo Berton, 25 Sep 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (28 Sep 2026) by Jean-Baptiste Filippi
AR by Matteo Berton on behalf of the Authors (30 Sep 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 Sep 2026) by Jean-Baptiste Filippi
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (02 Oct 2026)
RR by Carlos Calvo-Sancho (08 Oct 2026)
ED: Publish as is (08 Oct 2026) by Jean-Baptiste Filippi
AR by Matteo Berton on behalf of the Authors (16 Oct 2026)
Manuscript
General Comments:
The manuscript provides a comprehensive diagnosis of the convective storm and flash flood that struck the Marche region on 15 September 2022, utilizing high-resolution WRF model simulations. The study effectively highlights the stationarity of the rainbands, the role of upper-level divergence combined with low-level moisture advection, and the extreme sensitivity of the results to initial/boundary forcing conditions.
The manuscript is well-written, clear, and logically structured. The authors do a good job of diagnosing why the model struggles—specifically noting the premature decay of the convective system after 17:00 UTC and the timing mismatch in certain boundary layer forcings. However, even under the optimal setup (GDAS forcing), the model severely underestimates total accumulated rainfall (~180 mm simulated vs >400 mm observed at Cantiano and Frontone). In addition, there is a key theoretical inconsistency regarding the flow regime discussion over the Apennines.
Major Comments:
1. Methodological Interpretation of Orographic Flow (Froude Number):
The discussion employing the classical Froude Number (Fr) to describe airflow dynamics over the Apennines is methodologically flawed. The standard criterion (Fr < 1 for flow splitting/blocking) is derived for isolated, three-dimensional topographic obstacles. For an extended, continuous 2D mountain barrier like the Central Apennines, lateral deflection is heavily constrained by the broad scale of the ridge. Consequently, stable air can frequently be forced over the barrier, rather than simple horizontal splitting. I recommend either removing the classical Froude number argument or revising the text to reflect the specific dynamics of elongated 2D ridges (referencing relevant literature on 2D mountain flow regimes).
2. Discussion on the Precipitation Underestimation and Convective Decay:
While the authors acknowledge the underestimation of the peak rainfall (180 mm simulated vs 419 mm observed at Cantiano), the manuscript would benefit from a deeper physical discussion on why the simulated storm decays prematurely after 17:00 UTC. Is this decay driven by excessive cold-pool propagation, insufficient surface latent heat fluxes, or microphysical parameterization limits? Expanding slightly on these potential physical mechanisms would provide greater insight into why NWP models systematically fail to reproduce the extreme tail (>400 mm) of such localized convective events.
Minor Comment:
To enhance readability and provide a clear overview for the reader, please include a summary table listing the maximum predicted 24-h precipitation across the different sensitivity experiments (NCEP GDAS, HRES ECMWF, NCEP GFS, ERA5) alongside the observed rain gauge maxima (e.g., Cantiano, Frontone).