Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5261-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5261-2026
Research article
 | 
27 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 27 Oct 2026

An internally consistent framework for calculating cascading probabilistic earthquake risk and its application to a case study in New Zealand

Jose Moratalla, David Burbidge, Jean Roger, Katie Jones, Angela Griffin, Christof Mueller, Uma Ashok, Finn Scheele, Yaseen Mahmood, and Edith Bretherton

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Cited articles

Ata, M. Y.: A convergence criterion for the Monte Carlo estimates, Simul. Model. Pract. Theory, 15, 237–246, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.simpat.2006.12.002, 2007. 
Brideau, M. A., Massey, C. I., Lukovic, B., and Morgenstern, R.: Deterministic mapping of potential landslide debris inundation in the Kaikōura District, GNS Sci. Consult. Rep., 2019/102, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, 2020. 
Brideau, M. A., de Vilder, S., Massey, C., Mitchell, A., McDougall, S., and Aaron, J.: Empirical relationships to estimate the probability of runout exceedance for various landslide types, in: Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, Springer, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60227-7_36, 2021. 
Burbidge, D. R. (Ed.): The 2012 Australian earthquake hazard map, Geosci. Aust. Rec., 2012/71, Canberra, 2012. 
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We developed a model that links earthquakes with related hazards such as tsunami, liquefaction, and landslides to show how they jointly affect buildings. Using large-scale computer simulations for the city of Napier in New Zealand, we produced maps and risk metrics that describe expected damage levels for individual hazards and for their combined effects across thousands of homes.
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