Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5261-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5261-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
An internally consistent framework for calculating cascading probabilistic earthquake risk and its application to a case study in New Zealand
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
David Burbidge
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Jean Roger
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Katie Jones
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Angela Griffin
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Christof Mueller
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Uma Ashok
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Finn Scheele
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Yaseen Mahmood
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Edith Bretherton
Earth Sciences New Zealand, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
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Jean H. M. Roger, Yannice Faugère, Hélène Hébert, Antoine Delepoulle, and Gérald Dibarboure
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 943–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-943-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-943-2026, 2026
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Deployed in 2022, the SWOT (Surface Water Ocean Topography) satellite was flying over the Southwest Pacific on 19 May 2023 when it recorded the tsunami triggered by a magnitude 7.7 earthquake south of the Vanuatu arc. For the very first time, it provided a 2D image of a tsunami wavefield along a straight path. Comparison with numerical tsunami simulations reveals good phase agreement between the modeled wavefield and the SWOT record, but the simulated amplitudes are lower than the measurements.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
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We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Melody Philippon, Jean Roger, Jean-Frédéric Lebrun, Isabelle Thinon, Océane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Marc-André Gutscher, Leny Montheil, and Jean-Jacques Cornée
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3129–3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3129-2024, 2024
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Using novel geophysical datasets, we reassess the slip rate of the Morne Piton fault (Lesser Antilles) at 0.2 mm yr−1 by dividing by four previous estimations and thus increasing the earthquake time recurrence and lowering the associated hazard. We evaluate a plausible magnitude for a potential seismic event of Mw 6.5 ± 0.5. Our multi-segment tsunami model representative of the worst-case scenario gives an overview of tsunami generation if all the fault segments ruptured together.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, 2023
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On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Maxime Duphil, Jérôme Lefèvre, Jérôme Aucan, Pierre Lebellegard, Bruce Thomas, Céline Bachelier, and David Varillon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3489–3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3489-2021, 2021
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This study deals with the 5 December 2018 tsunami in New Caledonia and Vanuatu (southwestern Pacific) triggered by a Mw 7.5 earthquake that occurred southeast of Maré, Loyalty Islands, and was widely felt in the region. Numerical modeling results of the tsunami using a non-uniform and a uniform slip model compared to real tide gauge records and observations are globally well correlated for the uniform slip model, especially in far-field locations.
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Short summary
We developed a model that links earthquakes with related hazards such as tsunami, liquefaction, and landslides to show how they jointly affect buildings. Using large-scale computer simulations for the city of Napier in New Zealand, we produced maps and risk metrics that describe expected damage levels for individual hazards and for their combined effects across thousands of homes.
We developed a model that links earthquakes with related hazards such as tsunami, liquefaction,...
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