Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5261-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
An internally consistent framework for calculating cascading probabilistic earthquake risk and its application to a case study in New Zealand
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- Final revised paper (published on 27 Oct 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 19 Jan 2026)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5884', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Jan 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jose Moratalla, 13 Apr 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5884', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Feb 2026
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jose Moratalla, 13 Apr 2026
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RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-5884', Anonymous Referee #3, 09 Feb 2026
- AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Jose Moratalla, 13 Apr 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (17 Apr 2026) by Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen
AR by Jose Moratalla on behalf of the Authors (28 May 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (01 Jun 2026) by Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (06 Jun 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (14 Jul 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (14 Jul 2026) by Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen
AR by Jose Moratalla on behalf of the Authors (24 Jul 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (29 Jul 2026) by Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen
AR by Jose Moratalla on behalf of the Authors (06 Aug 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish as is (08 Aug 2026) by Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen
AR by Jose Moratalla on behalf of the Authors (17 Aug 2026)
Manuscript
Dear author/s,
Thank you very much for your efforts. I have included my notes and suggestions below.
Abstract
The abstract says that multi-hazard approaches are not widely used in real-world situations, but it should explain what that means. It is suggested to make clear that older models often get risk wrong because they treat hazards like liquefaction or tsunamis as if they happen separately. The effect seen in the Napier case study should be measured, for example, by showing which hazard caused the most damage, or by noting that the model used data from 30,000 homes to produce its detailed results. Use stronger action words like “enable high-resolution risk pricing” or "permit evidence-based land-use planning." This will make the research more useful for people outside of academic circles.
Introduction
Please clearly define what you mean by internal consistency in this study. Does it mean consistency over time, across locations, or from different sources? Please point out the main problem with how samples are chosen. Say if the framework uses any methods to reduce differences in results or not.
Methodology
It is important to explain how the relationship between different intensity measures (IM) is managed. Giving a clear description of how these IM are combined would help.
The current method (shown in Figure 2) calculates damage separately and then combines it. In real life, shaking can weaken a building and make it less able to withstand a tsunami. The paper should discuss this complex damage process, or clearly state whether it uses a simple "max-damage" or "union" rule and what its limits are. The paper says more simulations are needed for results to settle than in single-hazard models. Please give a number or measure for this. In a multi-hazard model, the average damage might settle faster than the highest possible loss.
The tsunami model uses a set of 330 pre-made scenarios based on simple slip patterns. There might be a difference between the detailed slip used for shaking and the simpler slip used for the tsunami scenarios. To keep things clear, the paper should discuss how the seafloor changes in the specific simulation compared to those in the scenario library.
The landslide hazard is shown as just one movement value. Landslides in this setting can occur immediately during an earthquake or later due to rain on weakened slopes. The method should make clear whether it models only landslides that occur during the earthquake.
The model shows liquefaction and lateral spreading as separate parts in the diagram, but these often happen together. It should be clear whether the model considers them together or treats them as separate ways buildings can be damaged.
Results
The results show total damage numbers but often do not compare the Average Annual Loss for each hazard, either on its own or when combined.
Please add a Peril Contribution Plot. This would let readers see when hazards like tsunamis start to cause more damage than ground shaking.
The results are based on the max-damage rule. Please test how sensitive the results are to this rule. If the model used a different way to combine damage, like adding up the chances of damage instead of just taking the worst case, how much would the total loss change?
Discussion
To keep the calculations manageable, the tsunami model library was limited to 330 scenarios. During the simulation, the model picks the closest scenario from this set. The discussion should clearly measure the error caused by this choice. It is also important to discuss whether this approach might miss the most extreme risks, especially for events that do not fit neatly into pre-made scenarios.
The framework uses a max-damage rule to combine damage from different hazards. This is a cautious simplification. The discussion should talk about how damage can depend on the order of events, for example, how shaking can make buildings more likely to collapse in a tsunami. Saying that future versions could include more detailed damage rules would give a clear plan for future research.
The paper says that more simulations are needed for results to settle in multi-hazard models than in single-hazard ones. The discussion would be stronger with more detail on the trade-off between how quickly the model runs and how stable the results are.
Please discuss the potential issues with using US-based HAZUS damage estimates for New Zealand buildings. The discussion should also suggest using local damage data in the future to improve the average damage estimates.
The current model does not include other hazards that can occur at the same time (such as tides or storm surges) or long-term changes (such as sea-level rise). Talking about how rising sea levels from climate change would affect tsunami flooding in this model would make it more useful for long-term city planning, not just for earthquake risk.
Conclusion
The paper says that risk increases as more hazards are included. Please give a simple scientific summary about how much the risk increases. For example, adding more hazards raised the average yearly loss compared to a model with only shaking. This gives other researchers a number to compare with different locations or building types.
The results show that shaking and liquefaction are the main hazards in Napier. Please clearly say when this order of importance is true.
In the conclusion, talk about how much consistency was reached. While the hazards come from the same source, the ways buildings are damaged mostly stay separate.
Thank you again for your work,
Best regards.