Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5151-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5151-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Research article
 | 
22 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 22 Oct 2026

Temporal models for the occurrence of Etna eruptions and implications for hazard assessment

Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Simona Scollo, Luigi Mereu, and Michele Prestifilippo

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Short summary
We model how eruptive events occur in time at Mt Etna. We distinguish between eruptions from flank fissures and paroxysmal eruptions from the summit craters. Our model allows to compute the expected annual frequency of flank events and the expected number of summit paroxysms in a future period of time, with uncertainty estimates. We show how this model can improve the assessment of probabilistic hazard from these eruptions.
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