Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5151-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5151-2026
Research article
 | 
22 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 22 Oct 2026

Temporal models for the occurrence of Etna eruptions and implications for hazard assessment

Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Simona Scollo, Luigi Mereu, and Michele Prestifilippo

Data sets

OTETNA: Onset Times of eruptive events at ETNA (flank eruptions since 1600 CE, summit paroxysms from 1986 to 2022 CE) (Version 1) Laura Sandri et al. https://doi.org/10.13127/etna/otetna

Download
Short summary
We model how eruptive events occur in time at Mt Etna. We distinguish between eruptions from flank fissures and paroxysmal eruptions from the summit craters. Our model allows to compute the expected annual frequency of flank events and the expected number of summit paroxysms in a future period of time, with uncertainty estimates. We show how this model can improve the assessment of probabilistic hazard from these eruptions.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint