Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4825-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4825-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 06 Oct 2026
| 06 Oct 2026
Forecasting European temperature-related mortality in Summer 2024: data-driven vs. physics-based forecast approaches
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Centre for Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Institute of Social and Preventative Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Leonardo Olivetti
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Centre for Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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Short summary
The health burden of extreme heat necessitates the development of effective early warning systems. These systems depend critically on the underlying weather forecasts. We compare forecasts of temperature-related mortality based on data-driven weather forecasts with those based on physics-based weather forecasts for summer 2024 in Europe. We find that forecasts based on data-driven weather forecasts could represent a promising avenue for the development of heat-related health impact forecasts.
The health burden of extreme heat necessitates the development of effective early warning...
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