Forecasting European temperature-related mortality in Summer 2024: data-driven vs. physics-based forecast approaches

Holmberg, Emma; Olivetti, Leonardo

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-4825-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4825-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4825-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 10

Research article

|

06 Oct 2026

Research article |

| 06 Oct 2026

Forecasting European temperature-related mortality in Summer 2024: data-driven vs. physics-based forecast approaches

Emma Holmberg and Leonardo Olivetti

Data sets

Temperature-related mortality exposure-response functions for 854 cities in Europe P. Masselot and A. Gasparrini https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10288665

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Short summary

The health burden of extreme heat necessitates the development of effective early warning systems. These systems depend critically on the underlying weather forecasts. We compare forecasts of temperature-related mortality based on data-driven weather forecasts with those based on physics-based weather forecasts for summer 2024 in Europe. We find that forecasts based on data-driven weather forecasts could represent a promising avenue for the development of heat-related health impact forecasts.