Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4825-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4825-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2026
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2026

Forecasting European temperature-related mortality in Summer 2024: data-driven vs. physics-based forecast approaches

Emma Holmberg and Leonardo Olivetti

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Short summary
The health burden of extreme heat necessitates the development of effective early warning systems. These systems depend critically on the underlying weather forecasts. We compare forecasts of temperature-related mortality based on data-driven weather forecasts with those based on physics-based weather forecasts for summer 2024 in Europe. We find that forecasts based on data-driven weather forecasts could represent a promising avenue for the development of heat-related health impact forecasts.
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