I have read both revised version of the manuscript and responses to reviewers carefully Based on a thorough reading of the revised manuscript, below I have listed my further critique section-by-section.
The abstract claims "multi-stage directional migration pattern" for the unweighted centroid and "substantial spatial differentiation" for weighted centroids, but these are described in nearly identical language in the conclusion as well. The abstract should be more economical: restating the same phrases verbatim across multiple sections signals that the findings are being padded rather than synthesized. More critically, the abstract still does not state the direction or magnitude of any of the centroid migrations, nor does it report a single q-statistic, so a reader cannot assess the quantitative significance of the claims without reading the full text.
Introduction: The term 'coupled human-Earth systems' is used as a conceptual framework throughout the paper, but is not operationally defined anywhere. The term appears throughout the manuscript as a rhetorical anchor, yet no formal model or system boundary is specified. This has methodological implications: the Geographical Detector identifies spatially stratified associations, not feedback loops. Therefore, the introduction should either define what “coupling” means in the context of this purely observational study or adopt more modest language, such as “co-variation of geophysical and socioeconomic conditions”.
The literature review also passes over the methodological literature on EM-DAT biases almost entirely. Citing only Rosvold & Buhaug (2021) and Peduzzi & Herold (2005) for database validation is insufficient given the central role EM-DAT plays in all results. This part must be enriched with a more comprehensive literature survey that will enable systematically documented EM-DAT's reporting thresholds and how they change over time.
Data Sources and Processing: The conversion of economic losses to constant 2020 USD using World Bank deflators is mentioned, but the specific deflator series (e.g., GDP deflator, CPI) is not identified. Different deflator choices can shift inter-period comparisons non-trivially for countries with high inflation histories (e.g., Turkey, Argentina), which are also among the highest-impact countries in the dataset. This should be specified precisely and its sensitivity acknowledged.
The magnitude range reported for EM-DAT records (3.0–9.5 Mw) is unusual, since EM-DAT does not filter entries by magnitude — it records events based on impact thresholds (≥10 deaths, ≥100 affected, etc.). The statement that the data cover "magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 9.5" likely reflects the range observed in the extracted records, not a filter applied by the authors. This distinction is important and should be clarified to avoid implying a deliberate magnitude-based selection.
The "cross-checking to remove duplicate entries" procedure lacks any methodological detail. How were duplicates identified — by epicenter coordinates, date, country code, or a combination? For transboundary events (e.g., the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami affecting 14 countries), was each country recorded as a separate entry or collapsed? This affects both frequency counts and national-level cumulative indicators substantially.
Methods - 3.1. The Mann-Kendall test assumes independence of observations. Annual earthquake impact indicators are unlikely to meet this assumption because of clustering in seismically active years driven by aftershock sequences and reporting carry-over. The authors do not test for or acknowledge autocorrelation in the time series. A pre-whitening step or block-bootstrap procedure would be appropriate, and its absence should at minimum be flagged as a limitation.
Methods - 3.3. The Geographical Detector requires discretization of continuous explanatory variables into strata. The number of strata and the discretization method (equal interval, quantile, natural breaks, etc.) are not reported anywhere in the manuscript. This is a critical omission: Geographical Detector q-values are sensitive to stratification choices, and results can differ substantially depending on the method used. Without this information, the results in Section 4.3 cannot be reproduced or independently evaluated.
Additionally, all 12 explanatory variables are from cross-sectional 2021 data, applied against cumulative fatalities spanning 1980–2024. The temporal mismatch is acknowledged briefly but its implications are not fully worked through. Countries that experienced their deadliest earthquakes in the 1980s or 1990s (e.g., Iran, Armenia) are being characterized by their 2021 governance and infrastructure scores, which may differ markedly from conditions at the time of impact. This confounds the causal story and could invert rankings for certain factor pairs.
Temporal Analysis: The observation that "average deaths per event reveal a strong upward trend (slope = 12.73)" is presented as a meaningful finding, but a positive slope in this metric is almost entirely driven by the denominator problem: when the number of recorded events increases (which it does significantly, slope = 0.15 per year), the average is pulled toward zero for routine events, making catastrophic outliers increasingly influential on the metric. The authors should explicitly note that this indicator behaves inversely to the frequency trend and is therefore not an independent signal.
The inter-annual and multi-period analyses are described separately in 4.1.1 and 4.1.2 but draw on the same data and repeat similar interpretive points about decoupling between frequency and mortality. The two subsections should be more clearly differentiated in terms of what analytical question each addresses; as currently written, they feel redundant.
Spatial Analysis - 4.2.1. The statement that "Europe shows comparatively low earthquake frequency but ranks second in average economic loss per event" is presented without identifying which specific countries drive this result. Given that Italy, Turkey, and Greece are classified as European in this study, and Turkey–Syria 2023 is one of the top-impact events, the result may be dominated by a single event in a single country. The continental-scale aggregation obscures this, and readers deserve explicit attribution.
Spatial Analysis - 4.2.3. The centroid migration trajectories at the plate scale (Table 2) list displacement distances of several thousand kilometres between decadal periods (e.g., Pacific Plate: 2,576 km in 2011–2024). These are large numbers for an unweighted centroid of earthquake occurrences. The authors do not provide any significance test or confidence interval for these centroid displacements. Without uncertainty bounds, it is impossible to determine whether the observed shifts are statistically distinguishable from random spatial redistribution of events within each plate. A bootstrap resampling of centroid positions would substantially strengthen these claims.
Geographical Detector Results: The q-statistic for population density (q = 0.41) is described as indicating "high explanatory power," but by the logic of the q-statistic, this means that 59% of the spatial variance in cumulative fatalities remains unexplained by population density alone. The paper consistently interprets q-values positively without acknowledging their absolute magnitude limitations. A brief calibration sentence — comparing these values to published Geographical Detector studies in comparable contexts — would help readers contextualize the explanatory power being claimed.
Factor 4 (Diurnal Temperature Variation, q = 0.36) achieves the same explanatory power as Level of Social Infrastructure (Factor 3, q = 0.36). This is a striking and counterintuitive result that receives no discussion. What physical or statistical mechanism would link diurnal temperature range to earthquake fatalities at the national scale? This result could reflect spatial confounding — both variables may co-vary with latitude or continentality — and its interpretation requires more scrutiny than is currently provided.
The interaction detector results (Figure 6b) are described as showing "widespread bilinear or nonlinear enhancement," but the paper does not report a single specific interaction q-value in the text. All interpretation is qualitative. At least the three or four highest-interaction pairs should be reported numerically, since these are the analytical core of Section 4.3.2.
Discussion - 5.1. The synthesis paragraph cites Daniell et al. (2011), He et al. (2018), and Formetta & Feyen (2019) to support the finding of declining mortality trends. However, Formetta & Feyen (2019) cover all climate-related hazards collectively, not earthquakes specifically. Citing a multi-hazard study to corroborate an earthquake-specific trend is imprecise and potentially misleading.
Discussion - 5.2.2/5.2.3 (Subsection numbering). The manuscript contains a numbering error: two subsections are both labelled "5.2.2" (Robustness and Uncertainty; Population Exposure — the latter appearing only as a deleted/tracked-change fragment) and two are labelled "5.2.4" (Implications for Dynamic Governance; GDP-normalized losses). This suggests the reorganization in response to Reviewer 2 Comment 6 was not cleanly finalized. The current structure is internally inconsistent and would likely confuse a copyeditor.
Discussion - 5.2.4 (GDP-normalized losses). The finding that GDP-normalized losses declined from 0.1784% to 0.0576% across the three periods is presented as evidence that "the relative macroeconomic burden decreased." However, this ratio is computed using total global GDP rather than the GDP of affected countries. Since global GDP grew substantially due to economic expansion in non-seismically-active or low-exposure countries (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa, much of South and Southeast Asia in the third period), the denominator is inflated by economic growth in countries that contribute little to earthquake losses. The ratio is therefore not a valid measure of relative burden for exposed nations and should be recomputed using the GDP of countries that actually recorded earthquake losses, or at minimum the limitation should be explicitly acknowledged.
Conclusion: The conclusion is largely a restatement of the abstract and Section 5.1, with minimal synthesis. Specifically, the fourth paragraph on Geographical Detector results adds nothing that was not already in Section 4.3. A stronger conclusion would explicitly state the practical threshold implications — e.g., which factor combinations correspond to the highest-risk national profiles, or what governance indicator level is associated with a measurable reduction in fatality outcomes — rather than reiterating that "interactions strengthen explanatory power."
Other issues:
Figures 4 and 5 are composite panels with very small embedded text and maps that are difficult to interpret at print scale. Given that the spatial analysis is the methodological centerpiece of the paper, the readability of these figures is a significant presentation issue that the revision does not appear to have addressed.
The manuscript alternates between "seismic events," "earthquake events," "earthquake impacts," and "earthquake occurrences" in ways that are not always semantically consistent and thus causing a terminological insonsitency. For example, Section 4.2.3 uses "seismic event centroids" while the method section uses "earthquake events." A consistent controlled vocabulary should be established and maintained throughout.
Section 4.2.3 refers to "Figure 5.c–g" for plate-level centroid panels, but Figure 5 panel (b) is described as "Global centroid displacement trajectory" in the caption, while panels (c) through (g) cover individual plates, yet the caption says "c) Centroid shifts on the American Plate; Centroid shifts on the d) African Plate, e) Eurasian Plate, f) Indian Ocean Plate, and g) Pacific Plate." This means panel (b) is referenced nowhere in the results text, an apparent oversight. |
This is an exceptionally rigorous and insightful study. By demonstrating a clear decoupling between earthquake frequency and mortality after the 2000s, it powerfully shifts the narrative from hazard to risk, emphasizing the critical role of human systems. The innovative multi-method approach—spanning temporal trends, spatial centroid migration, and factor detection—provides compelling, system-level evidence that disaster outcomes are shaped by the complex interplay of exposure, development, and governance. The findings are both academically significant and immediately relevant for global risk reduction strategies.