Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4457-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4457-2026
Research article
 | 
17 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 17 Sep 2026

Bayesian forecasting of triggered landslides

Flavia Ferriero, Fausto Guzzetti, and Warner Marzocchi

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Cited articles

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Berti, M., Martina, M. L. V., Franceschini, S., Pignone, S., Simoni, A., and Pizziolo, M.: Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach, J. Geophys. Res., 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jf002367, 2012. 
Brunetti, M. T., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., Luciani, S., Valigi, D., and Guzzetti, F.: Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 447–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-447-2010, 2010. 
Calcaterra, D., Parise, M., Palma, B., and Pelella, L.: The May 5th, 1998, landsliding event in Campania (Southern Italy): inventory of slope movements in the Quindici area, in: Proceedings of the Symposium on Slope Stability Engineering, edited by: Yagi, Y. and Jiang, J., Balkema, Rotterdam, 1361–1366, ISBN 90 5809 149 X, 1999. 
Calvello, M., Pecoraro, G., and Piciullo, L.: The regional early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides operating in Campania (Italy): performance evaluation of two warning strategies, 1st IMEKO TC-4 International Workshop on Metrology for Geotechnics, Benevento, Italy, 17–18 March, ISBN 978-92-990075-0-1, 2016. 
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Short summary
Landslides cause thousands of deaths and billions in damages yearly, yet predicting them remains a major challenge. We developed a Bayesian method that estimates landslide probability as a function of rainfall, explicitly accounting for uncertainty. Applied in southern Italy, landslide probability increases gradually with rainfall, with no sharp thresholds in the triggering conditions. This approach supports a more uncertainty-aware landslide risk management.
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