Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4457-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4457-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Research article
 | 
17 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 17 Sep 2026

Bayesian forecasting of triggered landslides

Flavia Ferriero, Fausto Guzzetti, and Warner Marzocchi

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Short summary
Landslides cause thousands of deaths and billions in damages yearly, yet predicting them remains a major challenge. We developed a Bayesian method that estimates landslide probability as a function of rainfall, explicitly accounting for uncertainty. Applied in southern Italy, landslide probability increases gradually with rainfall, with no sharp thresholds in the triggering conditions. This approach supports a more uncertainty-aware landslide risk management.
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