Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-433-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-433-2026
Research article
 | 
23 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 23 Jan 2026

A Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)-based synthetic event set of U.S. tornado outbreaks

Kelsey Malloy and Michael K. Tippett

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Cited articles

Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., and Sobel, A. H.: An empirical model relating US monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 7, 226–243, 2015a. a
Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., and Sobel, A. H.: Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States, Nature Geoscience, 8, 278–283, 2015b. a, b
Aon: 2024 Climate and Catastrophe Insight, Aon plc, https://assets.aon.com/-/media/files/aon/reports/2024/climate-and-catastrophe-insights-report.pdf (last access: 14 October 2024), 2024. a
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I. D., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Haarsma, R. J., and Aerts, J. C.: Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM, Scientific data, 7, 40, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2, 2020. a
Breivik, Ø., Aarnes, O. J., Abdalla, S., Bidlot, J.-R., and Janssen, P. A.: Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 5122–5131, 2014. a
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Short summary
Tornado outbreaks—many tornadoes in short succession—have major impacts, but it is hard to accurately assess their risk because they are rare. We used weather model data to create hundreds of thousands of realistic but unseen tornado outbreak scenarios. With this event set, we estimated U.S. and local outbreak risk and detected clear links to La Niña and upward outbreak activity in recent years.
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