Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-433-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-433-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
Research article
 | 
23 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 23 Jan 2026

A Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)-based synthetic event set of U.S. tornado outbreaks

Kelsey Malloy and Michael K. Tippett

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Short summary
Tornado outbreaks—many tornadoes in short succession—have major impacts, but it is hard to accurately assess their risk because they are rare. We used weather model data to create hundreds of thousands of realistic but unseen tornado outbreak scenarios. With this event set, we estimated U.S. and local outbreak risk and detected clear links to La Niña and upward outbreak activity in recent years.
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