Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4257-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4257-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Sep 2026
Research article |
| 04 Sep 2026
| 04 Sep 2026
Future fire weather projections show the importance of mitigation and adaptation for dynamic fire management
Inika Taylor
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Camilla Mathison
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Karina E. Bett-Williams
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Andrew J. Hartley
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Richard A. Betts
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Chantelle Burton
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Maria L. F. Barbosa
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Forrest M. Hoffman, Birgit Hassler, Ranjini Swaminathan, Jared Lewis, Bouwe Andela, Nathan Collier, Dóra Hegedűs, Jiwoo Lee, Charlotte Pascoe, Mika Pflüger, Martina Stockhause, Paul Ullrich, Min Xu, Lisa Bock, Felicity Chun, Bettina K. Gier, Douglas I. Kelley, Axel Lauer, Julien Lenhardt, Manuel Schlund, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Katja Weigel, Ed Blockley, Rebecca Beadling, Romain Beucher, Demiso D. Dugassa, Valerio Lembo, Jianhua Lu, Swen Brands, Jerry Tjiputra, Elizaveta Malinina, Brian Medeiros, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jeremy Walton, Phil Kershaw, André Lanfer Marquez, Malcolm J. Roberts, Eleanor O'Rourke, Beth Dingley, Briony Turner, Helene Hewitt, and John P. Dunne
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7415–7455, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7415-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7415-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) is a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of Earth system models. Built upon four disparate community evaluation tools, the REF is designed to provide model-data comparisons for the Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The REF will be run at the Earth System Grid Federation to enable model devleopers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues.
Chantelle Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Maria L. F. Barbosa, Joe McNorton, Robert Potts, Carlota Segura-Garcia, John T. Abatzoglou, Iulian Alin Rosu, Niels Andela, Liana O. Anderson, Sally Archibald, Esther Brambleby, Emilio Chuvieco, Andy Ciavarella, Hamish Clarke, Francisco de la Barrera, Carlos M. Di Bella, Enza Di Tomaso, Kebonye Dintwe, Tim S. Doherty, Victoria M. Donovan, Jonathan M. Eden, Paulo M. Fernandes, Lukas Fiedler, Louis Giglio, Olivia Haas, Douglas Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Andrew J. Hartley, Theodore R. Keeping, Crystal A. Kolden, Jean-Luc Kouassi, Elena Kukavskaya, Seppe Lampe, Zhongwei Liu, Guilherme Mataveli, Sarah Meier, Duarte Oom, Mark Parrington, Yuquan Qu, Victor Resco de Dios, Julien Ruffault, Mojtaba Sadegh, Cristina Santín, Fernando Sedano, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Patrícia S. Silva, Fiona R. Spuler, Carmen B. Steinmann, Veerachai Tanpipat, Miguel Ángel Torres-Vazquez, Marco Turco, Guido R. van der Werf, Dave van Wees, Sander Veraverbeke, Jakob B. Wessel, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-587, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-587, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The third State of Wildfires report examines extreme wildfire events from 2025 to early 2026. It analyses key regional events in Midwestern Canadian Shield Forests, Northwest Iberia, and Chilean Temperate Forests and Matorral, assessing their impacts, drivers, and attributing them to climate change. Climate change greatly increased the likelihood of these fires, and without strong mitigation, such events will become more frequent.
Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Marit Sandstad, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Norman J. Steinert, Thomas Gasser, Camilla Mathison, Jarmo Kikstra, Thomas J. Aubry, Katsumasa Tanaka, Konstantin Weber, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 7111–7133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7111-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7111-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Reduced-complexity models are an important tool in climate science, helping us understand and estimate future climate change. We present the experimental protocol for the next phase of the reduced-complexity model intercomparison project, which aims to compare results from many such models to better understand their behaviour. This knowledge will guide how these models are developed and used in the future, including in the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (AR7).
Jessica Stacey, Richard A. Betts, Andrew Hartley, Lina M. Mercado, and Nicola Gedney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 4225–4243, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4225-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4225-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Plants typically transpire less with rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, leaving more water in the ground for human use, but many future water scarcity assessments ignore this effect. We use a land surface model to examine how plant responses to carbon dioxide and climate change affect future water scarcity. Our results suggest that including these plant responses increases overall water availability for most people, highlighting the importance of their inclusion in future water scarcity studies.
Rebecca M. Varney, Daniel Hooke, Norman J. Steinert, T. Luke Smallman, Camilla Mathison, and Eleanor J. Burke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 913–928, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-913-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-913-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
The northern high latitudes mitigate climate change by land ecosystems absorbing more carbon from the atmosphere than they release. This carbon sink is sensitive to long-term CO2 emissions. Here, we use a probabilistic framework to quantify the timing and magnitude of a transition to a carbon source in different future emission scenarios, including overshoot. The fate of this region is dependent on the balance between carbon loss from permafrost and gain from increased vegetation productivity.
João C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 739–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Burned area has declined globally since the late 1990s, especially in tropical savannas, yet many climate models miss this trend because they poorly represent human fire use and suppression. We tested whether adding a simple link to human development improves a fire model. This reduced large regional errors and better captured downward trends in several areas, though it increased global underestimation and reduced variability. Human influence is key, but simple assumptions have trade-offs.
Piers M. Forster, Tristram Walsh, Chris Smith, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie M. Andrew, Chris Atkinson, Richard A. Betts, Antonio Bombelli, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Helen E. Claxton, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Catia M. Domingues, Thomas Gasser, Catherine H. Gregory, Rachel M. Hoesly, Daniel Huppmann, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, Alexia Karwat, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Jean-François Lamarque, Aurélien Liné, Belén Martín-Míguez, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Pino Mussak, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steven J. Smith, Ghassan Taha, Caterina Tassone, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Marco Zecchetto, Junting Zhong, Xiao-Ye Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We give our annual update of key climate indicators. Our work quantifies the human contribution to global warming and the pace of climate change. This represents a large effort by the international community akin to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Michael Gregory Windisch, Yann Quilcaille, Camilla Mathison, Claudia Tebaldi, Eleanor Burke, Laila Gohar, Chris Smith, Sarah Schöngart, Abigail Snyder, Siddarth Durga, Kalyn Dorheim, and Sonia Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2253, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Creating consistent climate scenarios remains challenging. The computational cost of comprehensive climate models leaves most scenarios without spatial climate outcomes, limiting feedback between climate consequences and scenario assumptions. We apply three spatial emulators to test their potential and current limitations in rapidly translating scenarios into spatial outcomes to identify regional risks, fill gaps in scenario coverage, and feed climate consequences back into scenario assumptions.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada-Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Linn Hamester, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, Matthieu Lengaigne, Rohini Kumar, and Maryna Strokal
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 4095–4135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Fang Li, David M. Lawrence, Brendan M. Rogers, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Yiquan Jiang, Johannes W. Kaiser, Matthew Kasoar, Hanna Lee, Ruby Leung, Lars Nieradzik, Aihui Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Ligeer Ce, Yangchun Li, Zhongda Lin, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Yongkang Xue
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3989–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3989-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3989-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme fire events are increasing, and fires are projected to rise across most regions, posing growing risks to ecosystems and society. As a key Earth system process, fire is now modeled in most Earth System Models (ESMs). FireMIP (Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project) within CMIP7 will evaluate fire simulations in state‑of‑the‑art ESMs, project future fire changes, and provide quantitative, process‑based understanding of fire's role in the Earth system.
Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Louise P. Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh M. N. Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew J. Gidden, Laila K. Gohar, Annika Högner, Andrew D. Jones, Jarmo Kikstra, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camilla Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Zebedee Nicholls, Luciana F. Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven K. Rose, Alex C. Ruane, Marit Sandstad, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna A. Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha S. Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, Marco Zecchetto, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2627–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of seven plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Konstantin Gregor, Benjamin F. Meyer, Tillmann Gaida, Victor Justo Vasquez, Karina Bett-Williams, Matthew Forrest, João P. Darela-Filho, Sam Rabin, Marcos Longo, Joe R. Melton, Johan Nord, Peter Anthoni, Vladislav Bastrikov, Thomas Colligan, Christine Delire, Michael C. Dietze, George Hurtt, Akihiko Ito, Lasse T. Keetz, Jürgen Knauer, Johannes Köster, Tzu-Shun Lin, Lei Ma, Marie Minvielle, Stefan Olin, Sebastian Ostberg, Hao Shi, Reiner Schnur, Qing Sun, Peter E. Thornton, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2407–2436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2407-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2407-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Geoscientific models are crucial for understanding Earth’s processes. However, they sometimes do not adhere to highest software quality standards, and scientific results are often hard to reproduce due to the complexity of the workflows. Here we gather the expertise of 20 modeling groups and software engineers to define best practices for making geoscientific models maintainable, usable, and reproducible. We conclude with an open-source example serving as a reference for modeling communities.
Martin Willett, Melissa Brooks, Andrew Bushell, Paul Earnshaw, Samantha Smith, Lorenzo Tomassini, Martin Best, Ian Boutle, Jennifer Brooke, John M. Edwards, Andrew D. Elvidge, Kalli Furtado, Catherine Hardacre, Andrew J. Hartley, Alan J. Hewitt, Ben Johnson, Adrian Lock, Andy Malcolm, Jane Mulcahy, Eike Müller, Ian A. Renfrew, Heather Rumbold, Gabriel G. Rooney, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Annelize van Niekerk, Andy Wiltshire, and Michael Whitall
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1473–1517, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1473-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1473-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA8GL9, which includes improvements to the representation of convection and other physical processes. GA8GL9 is used for operational weather prediction in the UK and forms the basis for the next GA and GL configuration.
Seppe Lampe, Lukas Gudmundsson, Basil Kraft, Stijn Hantson, Douglas Kelley, Vincent Humphrey, Bertrand Le Saux, Emilio Chuvieco, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 955–988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-955-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-955-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce BuRNN (BUrned area modelling by Recurrent Neural Networks), a model which estimates monthly burned area based on satellite observations and climate, vegetation, and socio-economic data using machine learning. BuRNN outperforms existing process-based fire models, which improves our capabilities of modelling past and future burned areas.
Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-825, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We reassess the basis for determining the present level of long-term global warming. Unbiased estimates of both realised warming and anthropogenic warming are possible that approximate a 20-year retrospective mean. Our resulting estimates of 1.40 [1.23–1.58] °C (realised) and 1.34 [1.18–1.50] °C (anthropogenic) as at end of 2024 highlight the urgency of immediate, far-reaching and sustained climate mitigation actions if we are to meet the long term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Camilla Mathison, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 115–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-115-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-115-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Simple Climate Models (SCMs) are widely used tools to explore how Earth's climate may change in the future. In recent decades, the number and types of SCMs have increased significantly, hindering efforts to understand cross-model differences. In this study, we provide an overview of the main principles guiding climate simulation by SCMs, as well as a description of most high-profile SCMs. This work offers a clear reference to support the informed use of these important tools.
Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Matthew W. Jones, Maria L. F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Joe R. McNorton, Zhongwei Liu, Anna S. I. Bradley, Katie Blackford, Eleanor Burke, Andrew Ciavarella, Enza Di Tomaso, Jonathan Eden, Igor José M. Ferreira, Lukas Fiedler, Andrew J. Hartley, Theodore R. Keeping, Seppe Lampe, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Yuquan Qu, Patrícia S. Silva, Fiona R. Spuler, Carmen B. Steinmann, Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez, Renata Veiga, Dave van Wees, Jakob B. Wessel, Emily Wright, Bibiana Bilbao, Mathieu Bourbonnais, Cong Gao, Carlos M. Di Bella, Kebonye Dintwe, Victoria M. Donovan, Sarah Harris, Elena A. Kukavskaya, Aya Brigitte N'Dri, Cristina Santín, Galia Selaya, Johan Sjöström, John T. Abatzoglou, Niels Andela, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Meier, Mark Parrington, Mojtaba Sadegh, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Fernando Sedano, Marco Turco, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, Liana O. Anderson, Hamish Clarke, Paulo M. Fernandes, and Crystal A. Kolden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5377–5488, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The second State of Wildfires report examines extreme wildfire events from 2024 to early 2025. It analyses key regional events in Southern California, Northeast Amazonia, Pantanal–Chiquitano, and the Congo Basin, assessing their drivers and predictability and attributing them to climate change and land use. Seasonal outlooks and decadal projections are provided. Climate change greatly increased the likelihood of these fires, and without strong mitigation, such events will become more frequent.
Beiyao Xu, Steven Dobbie, Huiyi Yang, Lianxin Yang, Yu Jiang, Andrew Challinor, Karina Williams, Yunxia Wang, and Tijian Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7257–7273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone (O3) pollution harms rice production and threatens food security. To understand these impacts, we calibrated a crop model using unique data from experiments where rice was grown in open fields under controlled O3 exposure (free air). This is the first time such data have been used to improve a model's ability to predict how rice responds to O3 pollution. Our work provides a more accurate tool to study O3's effects and guide strategies to protect agriculture.
Hsi-Kai Chou, Anna B. Harper, Arthur P. K. Argles, Maria Carolina Duran Rojas, Emma W. Littleton, Richard A. Betts, and Peter M. Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4536, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming and climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions will have multiple impacts on forest ecosystems. A core part of the strategy to mitigating these impacts is to use afforestation and forestry management to implement large-scale Greenhouse Gas Removal. Here we use the JULES-RED model to evaluate the afforestation under a changing environmental condition. We project that Sitka Forest afforestation could meet the target of GGR once the plantation locations been selected properly.
Renata Moura da Veiga, Celso von Randow, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Manoel Cardoso, and Fabiano Morelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3581–3601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically reviewed 77 papers to understand the Cerrado’s fire emissions within the global carbon budget by evaluating how fire parameters can inform emission estimates and mitigation strategies. Estimating fire emissions in the Cerrado requires a holistic approach, combining fire carbon emission estimates, fire dynamic parameters, and fire management and policy. We highlight key research gaps that could provide more comprehensive insights into accounting for fire emissions in the Cerrado.
Anastasios Rovithakis, Eleanor Burke, Chantelle Burton, Matthew Kasoar, Manolis G. Grillakis, Konstantinos D. Seiradakis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3185–3200, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3185-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used a land surface computer model to forecast how climate change will impact wildfires in Greece. Our results show a significant increase in future burnt area due to hotter, drier climate. Allowing vegetation to change with the climate lessens this increase overall, since fire is no longer igniting in areas already burnt, and it even led to projected decreases in the agricultural areas in the north of the country.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Igor J. M. Ferreira, Renata Moura da Veiga, Anna Bradley, Paulo Guilherme Molin, and Liana O. Anderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As fire seasons in Brazil become increasingly severe, confidently understanding the factors driving fires is more critical than ever. To address this challenge, we developed FLAME (Fire Landscape Analysis using Maximum Entropy), a new model designed to predict fires and to analyse the spatial influence of both environmental and human factors while accounting for uncertainties. By adapting the model to different regions, we can enhance fire management strategies, making FLAME a powerful tool for protecting landscapes in Brazil and beyond.
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Ngoc Thi Nhu Do, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, Louisa K. Emmons, Vaishali Naik, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd A. Folberth, and Douglas I. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2079–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding historical isoprene emission changes is important for predicting future climate, but trends and their controlling factors remain uncertain. This study shows that long-term isoprene trends vary among Earth system models mainly due to partially incorporating CO2 effects and land cover changes rather than to climate. Future models that refine these factors’ effects on isoprene emissions, along with long-term observations, are essential for better understanding plant–climate interactions.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emissions scenarios and rapidly provide regional impact information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales, including the analysis of many important variables for impact assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios, providing confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
Chris Smith, Donald P. Cummins, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Zebedee Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Myles Allen, Stuart Jenkins, Nicholas Leach, Camilla Mathison, and Antti-Ilari Partanen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8569–8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections are only useful if the underlying models that produce them are well calibrated and can reproduce observed climate change. We formalise a software package that calibrates the open-source FaIR simple climate model to full-complexity Earth system models. Observations, including historical warming, and assessments of key climate variables such as that of climate sensitivity are used to constrain the model output.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This inaugural State of Wildfires report catalogues extreme fires of the 2023–2024 fire season. For key events, we analyse their predictability and drivers and attribute them to climate change and land use. We provide a seasonal outlook and decadal projections. Key anomalies occurred in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia, with other high-impact events catalogued worldwide. Climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme fires, and mitigation is required to lessen future risk.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Katie R. Blackford, Matthew Kasoar, Chantelle Burton, Eleanor Burke, Iain Colin Prentice, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3063–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3063-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Peatlands are globally important stores of carbon which are being increasingly threatened by wildfires with knock-on effects on the climate system. Here we introduce a novel peat fire parameterization in the northern high latitudes to the INFERNO global fire model. Representing peat fires increases annual burnt area across the high latitudes, alongside improvements in how we capture year-to-year variation in burning and emissions.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Lee de Mora, Ranjini Swaminathan, Richard P. Allan, Jerry C. Blackford, Douglas I. Kelley, Phil Harris, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Spencer Liddicoat, Robert J. Parker, Tristan Quaife, Jeremy Walton, and Andrew Yool
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1295–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface and ocean for multiple models and over a range of future scenarios. We did this by comparing simulations after the same change in the global-mean near-surface temperature. Using this method, we show that the choice of scenario can impact the carbon allocation to the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Scenarios with higher emissions reach the same warming levels sooner, but also with relatively more carbon in the atmosphere.
Joao Carlos Martins Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelly, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-136, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Representing socio-economic impacts on fires is crucial to underpin the confidence in global fire models. Introducing these into INFERNO, reduces biases and improves the modelled burnt area (BA) trends when compared to observations. Including socio-economic factors in the representation of fires in Earth System Models is important for realistically simulating BA, quantifying trends in the recent past, and for understanding the main drivers of those at regional scales.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Kandice L. Harper, Céline Lamarche, Andrew Hartley, Philippe Peylin, Catherine Ottlé, Vladislav Bastrikov, Rodrigo San Martín, Sylvia I. Bohnenstengel, Grit Kirches, Martin Boettcher, Roman Shevchuk, Carsten Brockmann, and Pierre Defourny
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1465–1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We built a spatially explicit annual plant-functional-type (PFT) dataset for 1992–2020 exhibiting intra-class spatial variability in PFT fractional cover at 300 m. For each year, 14 maps of percentage cover are produced: bare soil, water, permanent snow/ice, built, managed grasses, natural grasses, and trees and shrubs, each split into leaf type and seasonality. Model simulations indicate significant differences in simulated carbon, water, and energy fluxes in some regions using this new set.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin G. Jones, Steven T. Rumbold, Till Kuhlbrodt, Andrea J. Dittus, Edward W. Blockley, Andrew Yool, Jeremy Walton, Catherine Hardacre, Timothy Andrews, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Marc Stringer, Lee de Mora, Phil Harris, Richard Hill, Doug Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Yongming Tang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1569–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent global climate models simulate historical global mean surface temperatures which are too cold, possibly to due to excessive aerosol cooling. This raises questions about the models' ability to simulate important climate processes and reduces confidence in future climate predictions. We present a new version of the UK Earth System Model, which has an improved aerosols simulation and a historical temperature record. Interestingly, the long-term response to CO2 remains largely unchanged.
Rahayu Adzhar, Douglas I. Kelley, Ning Dong, Charles George, Mireia Torello Raventos, Elmar Veenendaal, Ted R. Feldpausch, Oliver L. Phillips, Simon L. Lewis, Bonaventure Sonké, Herman Taedoumg, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Tomas Domingues, Luzmila Arroyo, Gloria Djagbletey, Gustavo Saiz, and France Gerard
Biogeosciences, 19, 1377–1394, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) product underestimates tree cover compared to field data and could be underestimating tree cover significantly across the tropics. VCF is used to represent land cover or validate model performance in many land surface and global vegetation models and to train finer-scaled Earth observation products. Because underestimation in VCF may render it unsuitable for training data and bias model predictions, it should be calibrated before use in the tropics.
Matthew C. Perry, Emilie Vanvyve, Richard A. Betts, and Erika J. Palin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-559-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the past, wildfires in the UK have occurred mainly in spring, with occasional events during hot, dry summers. Climate models predict a large future increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. Wildfire can be considered an
emergent riskfor the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.
Cited articles
Anderson, L. O., Burton, C., dos Reis João, B. C., Pessôa, A. C. M., Bett, P., Carvalho, N. S., Junior, C. H. L. S., Williams, K., Selaya, G., Armenteras, D., Bilbao, B. A., Xaud, H. A. M., Rivera-Lombardi, R., Ferreira, J., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Jones, C. D., and Wiltshire, A. J.: An alert system for Seasonal Fire probability forecast for South American Protected Areas, Clim. Resil., 1, https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.19, 2022.
Barbosa, M. L. F., Delgado, R. C., Forsad de Andrade, C., Teodoro, P. E., Silva Junior, C. A., Wanderley, H. S., and Capristo-Silva, G. F.: Recent trends in the fire dynamics in Brazilian Legal Amazon: Interaction between the ENSO phenomenon, climate and land use, Environ. Dev., 39, 100648, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2021.100648, 2021.
Ferreira Barbosa, M. L., Haddad, I., da Silva Nascimento, A. L., Máximo da Silva, G., Moura da Veiga, R., Hoffmann, T. B., Rosane de Souza, A., Dalagnol, R., Susin Streher, A., Souza Pereira, F. R., Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão, L. E., and Oighenstein Anderson, L.: Compound impact of land use and extreme climate on the 2020 fire record of the Brazilian Pantanal, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 31, 1960–1975, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13563, 2022.
Barbosa, M. L. F., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Ferreira, I. J. M., da Veiga, R. M., Bradley, A., Molin, P. G., and Anderson, L. O.: FLAME 1.0: a novel approach for modelling burned area in the Brazilian biomes using the maximum entropy concept, Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3533–3557, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3533-2025, 2025.
Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011.
Bett, P. E., Williams, K. E., Burton, C., Scaife, A. A., Wiltshire, A. J., and Gilham, R.: Skillful seasonal prediction of key carbon cycle components: NPP and fire risk, Environ. Res. Commun., 2, 55002, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab8b29, 2020.
Betts, R. A., Cox, P. M., Collins, M., Harris, P. P., Huntingford, C., and Jones, C. D.: The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0050-y, 2004.
Betts, R. A., Golding, N., Gonzalez, P., Gornall, J., Kahana, R., Kay, G., Mitchell, L., and Wiltshire, A.: Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways, Biogeosciences, 12, 1317–1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, 2015.
Boer, M. M., de Dios, V. R., and Bradstock, R. A.: Unprecedented burn area of Australian mega forest fires, Nat. Clim. Chang., 10, 171–172, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0716-1, 2020.
Booth, B. B. B., Bernie, D., McNeall, D., Hawkins, E., Caesar, J., Boulton, C., Friedlingstein, P., and Sexton, D. M. H.: Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013.
Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324, 2001.
Burrows, N. and McCaw, L.: Prescribed burning in southwestern Australian forests, Front. Ecol. Environ., 11, e25–e34, https://doi.org/10.1890/120356, 2013.
Burton, C., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., and Williams, K.: Will fire danger be reduced by using Solar Radiation Management to limit global warming to 1.5 C compared to 2.0 C?, Geophys. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077848, 2018.
Burton, C., Betts, R., Cardoso, M., Feldpausch, T. R., Harper, A., Jones, C. D., Kelley, D. I., Robertson, E., and Wiltshire, A.: Representation of fire, land-use change and vegetation dynamics in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn4.9 (JULES), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 179–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-179-2019, 2019.
Burton, C., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Feldpausch, T. R., Cardoso, M., and Anderson, L. O.: El Niño driven changes in global fire 2015/16, Front. Earth Sci. (Lausanne), 8, 199, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00199, 2020.
Burton, C., Kelley, D. I., Jones, C. D., Betts, R. A., Cardoso, M., and Anderson, L.: South American fires and their impacts on ecosystems increase with continued emissions, Clim. Resil. Sustain., 1, e8, https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.8, 2022.
Burton, C. A., Kelley, D. I., Burke, E., Mathison, C., Jones, C. D., Betts, R. A., Robertson, E., Teixeira, J. C. M., Cardoso, M., and Anderson, L. O.: Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C, Nat. Geosci., 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7, 2024.
Burton, C. A., Ciavarella, A., Kelley, D., Hartley, A. J., McCarthy, M., S. New, Betts, R. A., and Robertson, E.: Very high fire danger in UK in 2022 at least 6 times more likely due to human-caused climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 20, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb764, 2025.
Chuvieco, E., Pettinari, M. L., Lizundia Loiola, J., Storm, T., and Padilla Parellada, M.: ESA Fire Climate Change Initiative (Fire_cci): MODIS Fire_cci Burned Area Grid product, version 5.1, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, https://doi.org/10.5285/3628CB2FDBA443588155E15DEE8E5352, 2019.
Cirulis, B., Clarke, H., Boer, M., Penman, T., Price, O., and Bradstock, R.: Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 29, 414, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18135, 2020.
Clarke, H. and Evans, J. P.: Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 136, 513–527, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2507-4, 2019a.
Clarke, H. and Evans, J. P.: Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 136, 513–527, 2019b.
Clarke, H., Tran, B., Boer, M. M., Price, O., Kenny, B., and Bradstock, R.: Climate change effects on the frequency, seasonality and interannual variability of suitable prescribed burning weather conditions in south-eastern Australia, Agric. For. Meteorol., 271, 148–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.03.005, 2019.
CMES: Fire danger indices historical data from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store, https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.0e89c522, 2019.
Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A., and Totterdell, I. J.: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184–187, https://doi.org/10.1038/35041539, 2000.
Cruz, M. G., Gould, J. S., Alexander, M. E., Sullivan, A. L., McCaw, W. L., and Matthews, S.: Empirical-based models for predicting head-fire rate of spread in Australian fuel types, Aust. For., 78, 118–158, https://doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2015.1055063, 2015.
da Veiga, R. M. and Nikolakis, W.: Fire management and carbon programs: A systematic literature review and case study analysis, Soc. Nat. Resour., 35, 896–913, https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2022.2053618, 2022.
da Veiga, R. M., von Randow, C., Burton, C., Kelley, D. I., Cardoso, M., and Morelli, F.: Review article: Fire emissions in the Brazilian Cerrado – dynamics, estimates, management, and their role in the global carbon budget, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3581–3601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3581-2025, 2025.
de Groot, W. J., Wotton, B. M., and Flannigan, M. D.: Chapter 11 – Wildland Fire Danger Rating and Early Warning Systems, in: Wildfire Hazards, Risks and Disasters, edited by: Shroder, J. F. and Paton, D., Elsevier, Oxford, 207–228, ISBN 9780124104341, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-410434-1.00011-7, 2015.
Di Giuseppe, F., McNorton, J., Lombardi, A., and Wetterhall, F.: Global data-driven prediction of fire activity, Nat. Commun., 16, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58097-7, 2025.
Doley, R. M., Bell, R., and Watt, B. D.: An investigation into the relationship between long-term posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and coping in Australian volunteer firefighters, J. Nerv. Ment. Dis., 204, 530–536, https://doi.org/10.1097/NMD.0000000000000525, 2016.
Dowdy, A., Mills, G., Finkele, K., and Groot, W. D.: Australian fire weather as represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, Melbourne : Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, ISBN 9781921605185, 2009.
Dowdy, A. J.: Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 57, 221–234, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1, 2018.
Dowdy, A. J., Mills, G. A., Finkele, K., and de Groot, W.: Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian forest fire weather index and the McArthur forest fire danger index, Meteorol. Appl., 17, 298–312, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.170, 2010.
Ferreira, I. J. M., Campanharo, W. A., Barbosa, M. L. F., Silva, S. S., da Selaya, G., Aragão, L. E. O. C., and Anderson, L. O.: Assessment of fire hazard in Southwestern Amazon, Front. For. Glob. Chang., 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1107417, 2023.
Flannigan, M. D., Wotton, B. M., Marshall, G. A., de Groot, W. J., Johnston, J., Jurko, N., and Cantin, A. S.: Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications, Clim. Change, 134, 59–71, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1521-0, 2016.
Forkel, M., Dorigo, W., Lasslop, G., Teubner, I., Chuvieco, E., and Thonicke, K.: A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4443–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4443-2017, 2017.
Gill, A. M., Christian, K. R., Moore, P. H. R., and Forrester, R. I.: Bushfire incidence, fire hazard and fuel reduction burning, Aust. J. Ecol., 12, 299–306, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.1987.tb00950.x, 1987.
Golding, N. and Betts, R.: Fire risk in Amazonia due to climate change in the HadCM3 climate model: Potential interactions with deforestation, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003166, 2008.
Good, P., Lowe, J. A., Collins, M., and Moufouma-Okia, W.: An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci., 363, 1761–1766, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0024, 2008.
Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dyn., 16, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050010, 2000.
Haas, O., Prentice, I. C., and Harrison, S. P.: Global environmental controls on wildfire burnt area, size, and intensity, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 65004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6a69, 2022.
Haas, O., Prentice, I. C., and Harrison, S. P.: Wildfires on a changing planet, Nat. Commun., 17, 1599, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68176-4, 2026.
Hadisuwito, A. S. and Hassan, F. H.: A comparative study of drought factors in the Mcarthur Forest Fire Danger Index in Indonesian Forest, Copyright© EM International, 27 pp., Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1529, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1529/5/052051, 2020.
Hamilton, D. S., Kelley, D., Perron, M. M. G., Llort, J., Burton, C., Bergas-Masso, E., Ligouri-Bills, N., Barkley, A., Buchholz, R., Diez, S., Dintwe, K., Forkel, M., Hall, J., Hantson, S., Hayman, G., Hebden, S., Jones, M. W., Kulkarni, C., Nowell, B., McCarty, J. L., Santin, C., Schneider, S. R., Shuman, J. K., Thoreson, J., Plummer, S., Poulter, B., Vanniere, B., and Volker, C.: Igniting Progress: Outcomes from the FLARE workshop and three challenges for the future of transdisciplinary fire science, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12634068, July 2024.
Hantson, S., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Rabin, S. S., Archibald, S., Mouillot, F., Arnold, S. R., Artaxo, P., Bachelet, D., Ciais, P., Forrest, M., Friedlingstein, P., Hickler, T., Kaplan, J. O., Kloster, S., Knorr, W., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Meyn, A., Sitch, S., Spessa, A., van der Werf, G. R., Voulgarakis, A., and Yue, C.: The status and challenge of global fire modelling, Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016.
Hantson, S., Kelley, D. I., Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Archibald, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hickler, T., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J. R., Nieradzik, L., Rabin, S. S., Prentice, I. C., Sheehan, T., Sitch, S., Teckentrup, L., Voulgarakis, A., and Yue, C.: Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020.
Harris, P. P., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P. M.: Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci., 363, 1753–1759, 2008.
Head, L., Adams, M., McGregor, H. V, and Toole, S.: Climate change and Australia, Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change, 5, 175–197, 2014.
Higuera, P. E. and Abatzoglou, J. T.: Record-setting climate enabled the extraordinary 2020 fire season in the western United States, Glob. Chang. Biol., 27, 1–2, 2021.
Hoffmann, W. A., Schroeder, W., and Jackson, R. B.: Regional feedbacks among fire, climate, and tropical deforestation, J. Geophys. Res., 108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003494, 2003.
Holgate, C. M., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Cary, G. J., and Yebra, M.: Using alternative soil moisture estimates in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 26, 806–819, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16217, 2017.
Howard, T., Burrows, N., Smith, T., Glen, D., and McCaw, L.: A framework for prioritising prescribed burning on public land in Western Australia, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 29, 314, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19029, 2020.
Jain, P., Barber, Q. E., Taylor, S. W., Whitman, E., Castellanos Acuna, D., Boulanger, Y., Chavardès, R. D., Chen, J., Englefield, P., Flannigan, M., Girardin, M. P., Hanes, C. C., Little, J., Morrison, K., Skakun, R. S., Thompson, D. K., Wang, X., and Parisien, M.-A.: Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada, Nat. Commun., 15, 6764, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51154-7, 2024.
Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Freeborn, P. H., Holden, Z. A., Brown, T. J., Williamson, G. J., and Bowman, D. M. J. S.: Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013, Nat. Commun., 6, 7537, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8537, 2015.
Jones, D.: Changes to Fire Weather in Queensland Office of the Assistant Commissioner, Emergency Management and Community Capability Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-2784235013/view (last access: 23 June 2026), 2019.
Jones, M. W., Abatzoglou, J. T., Sander, V., Andela, N., Lasslop, G., Forkel, M., Smith, A. J. P., Burton, C., Betts, R. A., der Werf, G. R., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Santin, C., Kolden, C., Doerr, S. H., and Le Quéré, C.: Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change, Rev. Geophys., 60, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726, 2022.
Jones, M. W., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Di Giuseppe, F., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., Hartley, A. J., Lombardi, A., Mataveli, G., McNorton, J. R., Spuler, F. R., Wessel, J. B., Abatzoglou, J. T., Anderson, L. O., Andela, N., Archibald, S., Armenteras, D., Burke, E., Carmenta, R., Chuvieco, E., Clarke, H., Doerr, S. H., Fernandes, P. M., Giglio, L., Hamilton, D. S., Hantson, S., Harris, S., Jain, P., Kolden, C. A., Kurvits, T., Lampe, S., Meier, S., New, S., Parrington, M., Perron, M. M. G., Qu, Y., Ribeiro, N. S., Saharjo, B. H., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Shuman, J. K., Tanpipat, V., van der Werf, G. R., Veraverbeke, S., and Xanthopoulos, G.: State of Wildfires 2023–2024, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024.
Kaye, N. R., Hartley, A., and Hemming, D.: Mapping the climate: guidance on appropriate techniques to map climate variables and their uncertainty, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 245–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-245-2012, 2012.
Kelley, D. I. and Harrison, S. P.: Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 104015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104015, 2014.
Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Wang, H., Simard, M., Fisher, J. B., and Willis, K. O.: A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models, Biogeosciences, 10, 3313–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3313-2013, 2013.
Kelley, D. I., Bistinas, I., Whitley, R., Burton, C., Marthews, T. R., and Dong, N.: How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes, Nat. Clim. Chang., 9, 690–696, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0540-7, 2019.
Kelley, D. I., Burton, C., Huntingford, C., Brown, M. A. J., Whitley, R., and Dong, N.: Technical note: Low meteorological influence found in 2019 Amazonia fires, Biogeosciences, 18, 787–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-787-2021, 2021.
Kelley, D. I., Burton, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Jones, M. W., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., McNorton, J. R., Liu, Z., Bradley, A. S. I., Blackford, K., Burke, E., Ciavarella, A., Di Tomaso, E., Eden, J., Ferreira, I. J. M., Fiedler, L., Hartley, A. J., Keeping, T. R., Lampe, S., Lombardi, A., Mataveli, G., Qu, Y., Silva, P. S., Spuler, F. R., Steinmann, C. B., Torres-Vázquez, M. Á., Veiga, R., van Wees, D., Wessel, J. B., Wright, E., Bilbao, B., Bourbonnais, M., Gao, C., Di Bella, C. M., Dintwe, K., Donovan, V. M., Harris, S., Kukavskaya, E. A., N'Dri, A. B., Santín, C., Selaya, G., Sjöström, J., Abatzoglou, J. T., Andela, N., Carmenta, R., Chuvieco, E., Giglio, L., Hamilton, D. S., Hantson, S., Meier, S., Parrington, M., Sadegh, M., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Sedano, F., Turco, M., van der Werf, G. R., Veraverbeke, S., Anderson, L. O., Clarke, H., Fernandes, P. M., and Kolden, C. A.: State of Wildfires 2024–2025, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 5377–5488, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-5377-2025, 2025.
Khastagir, A., Jayasuriya, N., and Bhuyian, M. A.: Assessment of fire danger vulnerability using McArthur's forest and grass fire danger indices, Nat. Hazard., 94, 1277–1291, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3476-8, 2018.
Kloster, S. and Lasslop, G.: Historical and future fire occurrence (1850 to 2100) simulated in CMIP5 Earth System Models, Glob. Planet. Change, 150, 58–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.12.017, 2017.
Knapp, E. E., Estes, B. L., and Skinner, C. N.: Ecological Effects of Prescribed Fire Season: A Literature Review and Synthesis for Managers, https://doi.org/10.2737/PSW-GTR-224, 2009.
Lambert, F. H., Harris, G. R., Collins, M., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., and Booth, B. B. B.: Interactions between perturbations to different Earth system components simulated by a fully-coupled climate model, Clim. Dyn., 41, 3055–3072, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1618-3, 2013.
Li, F., Song, X., Harrison, S. P., Marlon, J. R., Lin, Z., Leung, L. R., Schwinger, J., Marécal, V., Wang, S., Ward, D. S., Dong, X., Lee, H., Nieradzik, L., Rabin, S. S., and Séférian, R.: Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024.
Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, P., Pirani, S. L., Connors, C., Pean, S., Berger, N., Caud, Y., Chen, L., Goldfarb, M. I., and Scheel Monteiro, P. M.: Ipcc, 2021: Summary for policymakers, in: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001, 2021.
Mataveli, G., de Oliveira, G., Silva-Junior, C. H. L., Stark, S. C., Carvalho, N., Anderson, L. O., Gatti, L. V, and Aragão, L. E. O. C.: Record-breaking fires in the Brazilian Amazon associated with uncontrolled deforestation, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 6, 1792–1793, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-022-01945-2, 2022.
Morgan, G. W., Tolhurst, K. G., Poynter, M. W., Cooper, N., McGuffog, T., Ryan, R., Wouters, M. A., Stephens, N., Black, P., Sheehan, D., Leeson, P., Whight, S., and Davey, S. M.: Prescribed burning in south-eastern Australia: history and future directions, Aust. For., 83, 4–28, https://doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2020.1739883, 2020.
Murphy, J. M., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. M. H., and Webb, M. J.: A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles, P. Trans. Roy. Soc. A, 365, 1993–2028, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2077, 2007.
Noble, I. R., Gill, A. M., and Bary, G. A. V: McArthur's fire-danger meters expressed as equations, Aust. J. Ecol., 5, 201–203, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.1980.tb01243.x, 1980.
O'Brien, P. and Campbell, D.: Wildland firefighter psychological and behavioral health: preliminary data from a national sample of current and former wildland firefighters in the United States, in: International Association of Wildland Fire 6th Annual Human Dimensions Conference, https://firesafety-humandimensions2021.com/ (last access: 22 December 2025), 2021.
Oliveras Menor, I., Prat-Guitart, N., Spadoni, G. L., Hsu, A., Fernandes, P. M., Puig-Gironès, R., Ascoli, D., Bilbao, B. A., Bacciu, V., Brotons, L., Carmenta, R., de-Miguel, S., Gonçalves, L. G., Humphrey, G., Ibarnegaray, V., Jones, M. W., Machado, M. S., Millán, A., de Morais Falleiro, R., Mouillot, F., Pinto, C., Pons, P., Regos, A., Senra de Oliveira, M., Harrison, S. P., and Armenteras Pascual, D.: Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9, 2025.
Pandey, P., Huidobro, G., Lopes, L. F., Ganteaume, A., Ascoli, D., Colaco, C., Xanthopoulos, G., Giannaros, T. M., Gazzard, R., Boustras, G., Steelman, T., Charlton, V., Ferguson, E., Kirschner, J., Little, K., Stoof, C., Nikolakis, W., Fernández-Blanco, C. R., Ribotta, C., Lambrechts, H., Fernandez, M., and Dossi, S.: A global outlook on increasing wildfire risk: Current policy situation and future pathways, Trees For. People, 14, 100431, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100431, 2023.
Peng, X., Yu, M., Chen, H., Zhou, B., Shi, Y., and Yu, L.: Projections of wildfire risk and activities under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios, Environ. Res. Commun., 5, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acbf13, 2023.
Pivello, V. R.: The use of fire in the cerrado and Amazonian rainforests of Brazil: Past and present, Fire Ecol., 7, 24–39, https://doi.org/10.4996/fireecology.0701024, 2011.
Rabin, S. S., Melton, J. R., Lasslop, G., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Hantson, S., Kaplan, J. O., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Ward, D. S., Yue, C., Arora, V. K., Hickler, T., Kloster, S., Knorr, W., Nieradzik, L., Spessa, A., Folberth, G. A., Sheehan, T., Voulgarakis, A., Kelley, D. I., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S., Harrison, S., and Arneth, A.: The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017.
Russell-Smith, J., McCaw, L., and Leavesley, A.: Adaptive prescribed burning in Australia for the early 21st Century – context, status, challenges, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 29, 305, https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20027, 2020.
Santos, F. L. M., Nogueira, J., de Souza Rodrigo, A. F., Falleiro, R. M., Schmidt, I. B., and Libonati, R.: Prescribed burning reduces large, high-intensity wildfires and emissions in the Brazilian Savanna, Fire, 4, 56, https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4030056, 2021.
Sharples, J. J., Cary, G. J., Fox-Hughes, P., Mooney, S., Evans, J. P., Fletcher, M.-S., Fromm, M., Grierson, P. F., McRae, R., and Baker, P.: Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire, Clim. Change, 139, 85–99, 2016.
Silveira, M. V. F., Petri, C. A., Broggio, I. S., Chagas, G. O., Macul, M. S., Leite, C. C. S. S., Ferrari, E. M. M., Amim, C. G. V, Freitas, A. L. R., Motta, A. Z. V, Carvalho, L. M. E., Silva Junior, C. H. L., Anderson, L. O., and Aragão, L. E. O. C.: Drivers of Fire Anomalies in the Brazilian Amazon: Lessons Learned from the 2019 Fire Crisis, Land (Basel), 9, 516, https://doi.org/10.3390/land9120516, 2020.
Sirakoff, C.: A correction to the equations describing the McArthur forest fire danger meter, Aust. J. Ecol., 10, 481, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.1985.tb00909.x, 1985.
Son, R., Kim, H., Wang, S. Y., Jeong, J. H., Woo, S. H., Jeong, J. Y., Lee, B. D., Kim, S. H., LaPlante, M., Kwon, C. G., and Yoon, J. H.: Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe675, 2021.
Stephens, S. L., McIver, J. D., Boerner, R. E. J., Fettig, C. J., Fontaine, J. B., Hartsough, B. R., Kennedy, P. L., and Schwilk, D. W.: The effects of forest fuel-reduction treatments in the United States, Bioscience, 62, 549–560, https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2012.62.6.6, 2012.
Sun, Q., Miao, C., Hanel, M., Borthwick, A. G. L., Duan, Q., Ji, D., and Li, H.: Global heat stress on health, wildfires, and agricultural crops under different levels of climate warming, Environ. Int., 128, 125–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.04.025, 2019.
Swain, D. L., Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C., Shive, K., Kalashnikov, D. A., Singh, D., and Smith, E.: Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00993-1, 1973.
Taylor, I., Williams, K., Mathison, C., Hartley, A., Betts, R., Kelley, D., and Burton, C.: Global Daily FFDI Projections from HadCM3C Perturbed Physics Ensemble – RCP2.6, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14860331, February 2025a.
Taylor, I., Williams, K., Mathison, C., Hartley, A., Betts, R., Kelley, D., and Burton, C.: Global Daily FFDI Projections from HadCM3C Perturbed Physics Ensemble – RCP8.5, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14859064, February 2025b.
Taylor, I., Williams, K., Mathison, C., Kelley, D., Hartley, A., Betts, R., and Burton, C.: Analysis code for Future fire weather projections show the importance of mitigation and adaptation for dynamic fire management, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14871362, 2026.
Taylor, I. H., Burke, E., McColl, L., Falloon, P. D., Harris, G. R., and McNeall, D.: The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, 2013.
Tian, C., Yue, X., Zhu, J., Liao, H., Yang, Y., Chen, L., Zhou, X., Lei, Y., Zhou, H., and Cao, Y.: Projections of fire emissions and the consequent impacts on air quality under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, Environ. Pollut., 323, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121311, 2023.
UNEP, Popescu, A., Paulson, A. K., Christianson, A. C., Sullivan, A., Tulloch, A., Bilbao, B., Mathison, C., Robinson, C., Burton, C., Ganz, D., Nangoma, D., Saah, D., Armenteras, D., Driscoll D., Hankins, D. L., Kelley, D. I., Langer, E. R. L., Baker, E., Berenguer, E., Reisen, F., Robinne, F.-N., Galudra, G., Humphrey, G., Safford, H., Baird, I. G., Oliveras, I., Littell, J., Kieft, J., Chew, J., Maclean, K., Wittenberg, L., Anderson, L. O., Gillson, L., Plucinski, M., Moritz, M., Brown, M., Soto, M. C., Flannigan, M., Costello, O., Silva, P. S., Fernandes, P., Moore, P., Jandt, R., Blanchi, R., Libonati, R., Archibald, S., Dunlop, S., McCaffrey, S., Page, S., Gonzãlez Tiina, D. T., Sokchea, T., and Charlton, V.: Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires, edited by: Sullivan, A., Kurvits, T., and Baker, E., United Nations Environment Programme and GRID-Arendal, https://www.unep.org/resources/report/spreading-wildfire-rising-threat-extraordinary-landscape-fires (last access: 23 June 2026), 2022.
UNFCCC: Adoption of the Paris agreement, 21st conference of the parties, https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf (last access: 23 June 2026), 2015.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Krikken, F., Lewis, S., Leach, N. J., Lehner, F., Saunders, K. R., van Weele, M., Haustein, K., Li, S., Wallom, D., Sparrow, S., Arrighi, J., Singh, R. K., van Aalst, M. K., Philip, S. Y., Vautard, R., and Otto, F. E. L.: Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021.
Ward, M., Tulloch, A. I. T., Radford, J. Q., Williams, B. A., Reside, A. E., Macdonald, S. L., Mayfield, H. J., Maron, M., Possingham, H. P., Vine, S. J., O'Connor, J. L., Massingham, E. J., Greenville, A. C., Woinarski, J. C. Z., Garnett, S. T., Lintermans, M., Scheele, B. C., Carwardine, J., Nimmo, D. G., Lindenmayer, D. B., Kooyman, R. M., Simmonds, J. S., Sonter, L. J., and Watson, J. E. M.: Impact of 2019–2020 mega-fires on Australian fauna habitat, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 4, 1321–1326, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1251-1, 2020.
Short summary
We present future climate change projections that show increasing fire danger worldwide. Focusing on Australia, Brazil, and the USA, we show that limiting warming to 2 °C reduces the increase in fire danger. However, fire seasons still lengthen and intensify even at 1.5 °C, demonstrating the need for mitigation to limit impacts and adaptation to manage residual risk. Low-fire danger periods persist, but we show their timing and duration will shift and must be considered in fire management.
We present future climate change projections that show increasing fire danger worldwide....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint