Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4257-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4257-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Research article
 | 
04 Sep 2026
Research article |  | 04 Sep 2026

Future fire weather projections show the importance of mitigation and adaptation for dynamic fire management

Inika Taylor, Douglas I. Kelley, Camilla Mathison, Karina E. Bett-Williams, Andrew J. Hartley, Richard A. Betts, Chantelle Burton, and Maria L. F. Barbosa

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Short summary
We present future climate change projections that show increasing fire danger worldwide. Focusing on Australia, Brazil, and the USA, we show that limiting warming to 2 °C reduces the increase in fire danger. However, fire seasons still lengthen and intensify even at 1.5 °C, demonstrating the need for mitigation to limit impacts and adaptation to manage residual risk. Low-fire danger periods persist, but we show their timing and duration will shift and must be considered in fire management.
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