Future fire weather projections show the importance of mitigation and adaptation for dynamic fire management

Taylor, Inika; Kelley, Douglas I.; Mathison, Camilla; Bett-Williams, Karina E.; Hartley, Andrew J.; Betts, Richard A.; Burton, Chantelle; Barbosa, Maria L. F.

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-4257-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4257-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4257-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 9

Research article

|

04 Sep 2026

Research article |

| 04 Sep 2026

Future fire weather projections show the importance of mitigation and adaptation for dynamic fire management

Inika Taylor, Douglas I. Kelley, Camilla Mathison, Karina E. Bett-Williams, Andrew J. Hartley, Richard A. Betts, Chantelle Burton, and Maria L. F. Barbosa

Data sets

Global Daily FFDI Projections from HadCM3C Perturbed Physics Ensemble - RCP2.6 I. Taylor et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14860331

Global Daily FFDI Projections from HadCM3C Perturbed Physics Ensemble - RCP8.5 I. Taylor et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14859064

Model code and software

Analysis code for Limiting global warming to 1.5°C minimises projected global increases in fire weather days, but adaptation to new fire regimes is still needed I. Taylor et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14871362

Short summary

We present future climate change projections that show increasing fire danger worldwide. Focusing on Australia, Brazil, and the USA, we show that limiting warming to 2 °C reduces the increase in fire danger. However, fire seasons still lengthen and intensify even at 1.5 °C, demonstrating the need for mitigation to limit impacts and adaptation to manage residual risk. Low-fire danger periods persist, but we show their timing and duration will shift and must be considered in fire management.