Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Research article
 | 
31 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 31 Jul 2026

Impact of warming on rainfall changes in damaging Philippine typhoons using high-resolution convection-permitting models

Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Kevin Hodges

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Short summary
High-resolution simulations reveal that future warming amplifies tropical cyclone extreme rainfall in the Philippines, with inner-core increases exceeding 30–40 %, indicating a shift toward higher-intensity rainfall events. This response is primarily driven by thermodynamic moisture increases, while dynamical changes generally offset part of the increase. Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall scaling is therefore largely moisture-driven, with TC-specific dynamics modulating the magnitude of rainfall enhancement.
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