Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026
Research article
 | 
31 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 31 Jul 2026

Impact of warming on rainfall changes in damaging Philippine typhoons using high-resolution convection-permitting models

Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Kevin Hodges

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

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Short summary
High-resolution simulations reveal that future warming amplifies tropical cyclone extreme rainfall in the Philippines, with inner-core increases exceeding 30–40 %, indicating a shift toward higher-intensity rainfall events. This response is primarily driven by thermodynamic moisture increases, while dynamical changes generally offset part of the increase. Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall scaling is therefore largely moisture-driven, with TC-specific dynamics modulating the magnitude of rainfall enhancement.
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