Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3443-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3443-2026
Research article
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28 Jul 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 28 Jul 2026

Assessment of seismicity and risk from gas injection in the Groningen gas field

Sander Osinga, Olwijn Leeuwenburgh, Bouko Vogelaar, Santiago Pena Clavijo, and Simona Bottero

Cited articles

Aben, F. M., Pruiksma, J. P., Kraaijpoel, D., Osinga, S., and Pluymaekers, M. P. D.: A stress model for nonlinear reservoir compaction and application to the post shut-in Groningen gas field, Geophys. J. Int., 241, 1495–1518, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaf119, 2025. 
Bierman, S., Kraaijeveld, F., and Bourne, S.: Regularized direct inversion to compaction in the Groningen reservoir using measurements from optical leveling campaigns, NAM Report SR, 15, 11194, https://nam-feitenencijfers.data-app.nl/download/rapport/cc5ea278-c093-457b-b930-1869a3c26c21?open=true (last access: 7 July 2026), 2015. 
Bommer, J., Edwards, B., Kruiver, P., Rodriguez-Marek, A., Stafford, P., Ntinalexis, M., Ruigrok, E., and Dost, B.: V7 ground-motion model for induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field (Revision 1.1), 26 February 2022, https://nam-onderzoeksrapporten.data-app.nl/reports/download/groningen/en/06766b7a-1999-4f48-977c-33a5d94cdd82?open=true (last access: 7 July 2026), 2022a. 
Bommer, J. J., Stafford, P. J., Ruigrok, E., Rodriguez-Marek, A., Ntinalexis, M., Kruiver, P. P., Edwards, B., Dost, B., and van Elk, J.: Ground-motion prediction models for induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field, The Netherlands, J. Seismol., 26, 1157–1180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-022-10120-w, 2022b. 
Bourne, S. J. and Oates, S. J.: Extreme threshold failures within a heterogeneous elastic thin sheet and the spatial–temporal development of induced seismicity within the Groningen gas field, J. Geophys. Res., 122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JB014356, 2017. 
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Editorial statement
The paper discusses in a very timely manner the seismicity and risk from gas injection in the Groningen gas field. The results indicate that reductions in seismicity can be achieved in all analysed scenarios and that these reductions could be substantial also for relatively modest volumes of injection gas. The results also show that benefits may be lost if injection is stopped before reservoir-wide equilibration has been achieved. These are interesting findings which enables the paper to fulfil more than one newsworthy criteria of the EGU: i.a. timing, significance, proximity, and hot topic.
Short summary
Gas production from the Groningen gas field caused felt earthquakes, resulting in field closure in 2023. Despite this, earthquakes are expected to continue for years to come. This study models whether gas injection may be used to reduce earthquakes. The results suggest that, under continued zero-production scenarios, gas injection would decrease the number of earthquakes and the associated seismic risk compared to a no-injection scenario, offering a potential avenue for active mitigation.
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