Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3443-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessment of seismicity and risk from gas injection in the Groningen gas field
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- Final revised paper (published on 28 Jul 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 11 Dec 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6007', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Mar 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Sander Osinga, 30 Mar 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-6007', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Mar 2026
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Sander Osinga, 30 Mar 2026
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AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (21 May 2026) by Filippos Vallianatos
AR by Sander Osinga on behalf of the Authors (22 May 2026)
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ED: Publish as is (30 May 2026) by Filippos Vallianatos
AR by Sander Osinga on behalf of the Authors (01 Jul 2026)
This manuscript investigates the potential mitigation of induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field through nitrogen injection into the depleted reservoir following the cessation of gas production. The study employs the existing TNO modelling framework, integrating reservoir flow simulations, a seismic source model (SSM), ground motion modelling, and seismic hazard and risk assessment to evaluate the potential impact of several injection scenarios on seismicity and associated societal risk.
The topic is relevant to NHESS and timely. Although gas production in the Groningen field ceased in October 2023, seismicity is expected to persist due to delayed reservoir compaction and ongoing stress redistribution. Exploring potential mitigation strategies for post-production seismicity is therefore scientifically and societally important. The integrated modelling chain used in this study provides a structured framework to link reservoir pressure evolution to seismicity forecasts and seismic risk metrics.
The manuscript is generally well written and logically structured. The scenario-based analysis provides useful insight into how reservoir repressurization through nitrogen injection may influence the temporal evolution of seismicity and associated seismic risk. The results indicate that nitrogen injection may reduce the predicted seismicity rate and corresponding risk metrics compared to a reference case without injection.
Several modelling assumptions and simplifications are already acknowledged and discussed by the authors in the discussion section. Since these limitations are transparently presented in the manuscript, it is not necessary to reiterate them in this review. My main comment concerns the validation of the modelling framework against historical observations, which would help strengthen confidence in the predictive capability of the model.
The seismic source model (SSM) described in Section 2.2 is a central component of the modelling framework, as it converts reservoir pressure changes into forecasts of seismic activity. The manuscript states that the SSM has been calibrated against historical seismicity, and the comparison between observed and simulated number of events per year appears to show a good agreement (e.g., the green shaded part in Figures 6–13). However, it is less clear how well the calibrated SSM reproduces other important characteristics of the historical seismicity. In particular, the manuscript does not appear to show comparisons of the spatial distribution of events between observed and simulated seismicity. Since fault geometry and spatial stress redistribution play an important role in induced seismicity, demonstrating that the model reproduces the spatial pattern of seismicity would strengthen confidence in the calibration.
In addition, it would be useful to clarify how the model represents larger events, particularly the Huizinge earthquake (M3.6 in 2012), which represents the largest recorded event in the Groningen field. It is not clear from the manuscript whether events of this magnitude can be reproduced by the calibrated SSM, or whether the calibration mainly focuses on reproducing the overall seismicity rate. Demonstrating whether events with magnitude larger than 3 can be reproduced within the calibrated SSM would be helpful for assessing the model’s capability to represent the historical seismicity.
Furthermore, since the seismicity in Groningen is closely related to reservoir compaction and resulting surface subsidence, it would also be useful to show how well the reservoir model reproduces the historical subsidence evolution observed in the Groningen field. Subsidence measurements provide an important constraint on reservoir compaction behaviour and therefore indirectly on the stress changes driving seismicity. A brief comparison between observed and simulated subsidence evolution would therefore further strengthen the validation of the modelling framework.
Overall, a figure or additional comparison showing (i) spatial seismicity patterns, (ii) magnitude distribution including larger events such as the Huizinge earthquake, and (iii) subsidence history matching would provide a more comprehensive validation of the modelling framework against historical observations.