Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Research article
 | 
15 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 15 Jul 2026

Benefits of the simplified MEV for analyzing hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate

Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, and Bruno Merz

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Short summary
Predicting hourly rainfall extremes under climate change is crucial yet highly uncertain. Using convection-permitting climate model data over Germany, we compare stationary and non-stationary general extreme value (GEV) and simplified metastatistical extreme value (sMEV) methods. We show that the sMEV approach exhibits lower uncertainty across return periods. Moreover, the non-stationary sMEV better captures climate-change-induced changes, though care is needed when projecting future extremes.
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