Benefits of the simplified MEV for analyzing hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate

Lennartz, Marc; Poschlod, Benjamin; Merz, Bruno

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 7

Research article

|

15 Jul 2026

Research article |

| 15 Jul 2026

Benefits of the simplified MEV for analyzing hourly precipitation extremes in a changing climate

Marc Lennartz, Benjamin Poschlod, and Bruno Merz

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3273-2026-supplement

Data sets

Historical simulation with COSMO-CLM5-0-16 version V2022.01 M. Haller, S. Brienen, J. Brauch, et al. https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD/CPS_HIST_V2022.01

Using GEV and sMEV to analyze future extreme precipitation (1.0.0) M. Lennartz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21275531

Model code and software

Unified Framework for Extreme Sub-daily Precipitation Frequency Analyses based on Ordinary Events -- data \& codes F. Marra https://zenodo.org/records/3971558

TEmperature-dependent Non-Asymptotic statistical model for eXtreme return levels (TENAX) F. Marra and N. Peleg https://zenodo.org/records/8345905

Using GEV and sMEV to analyze future extreme precipitation (1.0.0) M. Lennartz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21275531

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Short summary

Predicting hourly rainfall extremes under climate change is crucial yet highly uncertain. Using convection-permitting climate model data over Germany, we compare stationary and non-stationary general extreme value (GEV) and simplified metastatistical extreme value (sMEV) methods. We show that the sMEV approach exhibits lower uncertainty across return periods. Moreover, the non-stationary sMEV better captures climate-change-induced changes, though care is needed when projecting future extremes.