Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-315-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-315-2026
Research article
 | 
20 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 20 Jan 2026

Meteorological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting Using a Hybrid SG-CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM Model Based on SPI from Rain Gauge Data

Siphamandla Sibiya, Shaun Ramroop, Sileshi Melesse, and Nkanyiso Mbatha

Cited articles

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Alashan, S.: Combination of modified Mann-Kendall method and Şen innovative trend analysis, Eng. Rep., 2, e12131, https://doi.org/10.1002/eng2.12131, 2020. 
Alquraish, M., Abuhasel, K. A., Alqahtani, S. A., and Khadr, M.: SPI-based hybrid hidden Markov–GA, ARIMA–GA, and ARIMA–GA–ANN models for meteorological drought forecasting, Sustainability, 13, 12576, https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212576, 2021. 
Ashraf, M. S., Shahid, M., Waseem, M., Azam, M., and Rahman, K. U.: Assessment of variability in hydrological droughts using the improved innovative trend analysis method, Sustain., 15, 9065, https://doi.org/10.3390/su15119065, 2023. 
Bagmar, M. S. H. and Khudri, M. M.: Application of box-jenkins models for forecasting drought in north-western part of Bangladesh, Environmental Engineering Research, 26, https://doi.org/10.4491/eer.2020.294, 2021. 
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Short summary
This study aimed to improve drought forecasting in uMkhanyakude, where water scarcity affects agriculture and livelihoods. It analyzed rainfall trends using modified Mann-Kendall and innovative trend analysis on the Standardized Precipitation Index. A hybrid model combining Savitzky–Golay, decomposition methods, and neural networks showed high accuracy, highlighting its value for early drought warning and water resource planning.
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