Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2269-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2269-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 May 2026
Research article |
| 15 May 2026
| 15 May 2026
Projections of changes in extreme storm surges for European coasts using statistical downscaling
Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Angélique Melet
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
Melisa Menendez
IHCantabria – Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Hector Lobeto
IHCantabria – Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Jonathan B. Valle-Rodriguez
IHCantabria – Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
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Short summary
We applied a fast statistical model to estimate future extreme storm surges in Europe using data from 17 climate models – about twice as many as in past studies. Results show robust regional patterns – decreases in the Mediterranean and Moroccan coast, increases in the Irish Sea and Gulf of Finland – with high uncertainty in other areas. Out results increase our knowledge on future storm surge uncertainties, needed for informed coastal planning.
We applied a fast statistical model to estimate future extreme storm surges in Europe using data...
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