Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2269-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2269-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
Research article
 | 
15 May 2026
Research article |  | 15 May 2026

Projections of changes in extreme storm surges for European coasts using statistical downscaling

Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Angélique Melet, Melisa Menendez, Hector Lobeto, and Jonathan B. Valle-Rodriguez

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Short summary
We applied a fast statistical model to estimate future extreme storm surges in Europe using data from 17 climate models – about twice as many as in past studies. Results show robust regional patterns – decreases in the Mediterranean and Moroccan coast, increases in the Irish Sea and Gulf of Finland – with high uncertainty in other areas. Out results increase our knowledge on future storm surge uncertainties, needed for informed coastal planning.
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