Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2111-2026
Copyright waived. This work has been dedicated to the public domain (Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication).
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2111-2026
Copyright waived. This work has been dedicated to the public domain (Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication).
Research article
| 
08 May 2026
Research article |
| 08 May 2026
An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States
U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, USA
Francis K. Rengers
U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, USA
Katherine R. Barnhart
U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, USA
Matthew A. Thomas
U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, USA
Jason W. Kean
U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO, USA
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
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Debris flows often occur after wildfires. These debris flows move water, sediment, and wood. The wood can get stuck in channels, creating a dam that holds boulders, cobbles, sand, and muddy material. We investigated how the channel width and wood length influenced how much sediment is stored. We also used a series of equations to back calculate the debris flow speed using the breaking threshold of wood. These data will help improve models and provide insight into future field investigations.
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Runoff and erosion increase after fire, leading to a greater likelihood of floods and debris flows. We monitored debris flow activity following a fire in western New Mexico, USA, and observed 16 debris flows over a <2-year monitoring period. Rainstorms with recurrence intervals of approximately 1 year were sufficient to initiate debris flows. All debris flows initiated during the first several months following the fire, indicating a rapid decrease in debris flow susceptibility over time.
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Short summary
Postfire debris flows are fast-moving landslides that pose a significant risk to downstream communities around the world. Accurately predicting how large postfire debris flows will be, before they occur, allows us to better understand the potential effects of future events. In this study, we develop a new method for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States. Results show that this new method outperforms existing volume models and can improve postfire hazard assessments.
Postfire debris flows are fast-moving landslides that pose a significant risk to downstream...
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