Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1537-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1537-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
Research article
 | 
25 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 25 Mar 2026

Tracking the slopes: a spatio-temporal prediction model for backcountry skiing activity in the Swiss Alps using user-generated content

Leonie Schäfer, Frank Techel, Günter Schmudlach, and Ross S. Purves

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Short summary
Backcountry skiing is a popular form of recreation in Switzerland and worldwide, despite numerous avalanche accidents and fatalities that are recorded each year. There is a need for spatially explicit information on backcountry usage for effective risk estimations and avalanche forecast verification. We used GPS tracks and online engagement data to model and predict daily backcountry skiing base rates in the Swiss Alps based on a set of snow, weather, temporal and environmental variables.
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