Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026
Research article
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11 Mar 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 11 Mar 2026

Numerical experiments of cloud seeding for mitigating localization of heavy rainfall: a case study of Mesoscale Convective System in Japan

Yusuke Hiraga, Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua, Shunji Kotsuki, Yoshiharu Suzuki, Shu-Hua Chen, Atsushi Hamada, Kazuaki Yasunaga, and Takuya Funatomi

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Editorial statement
The study investigates the potential of cloud seeding to mitigate extreme rainfall localization associated with mesoscale convective systems. Using a numerical weather prediction model, numerical cloud seeding experiments were conducted artificially increasing ice nuclei concentrations in a double-moment microphysics scheme for the heavy rainfall event. For a disastrous event that occurred in Japan in 2014, the authors show that idealized overseeding can suppress peak rainfall in high risk areas while producing an accompanying rainfall increase downwind. Estimates of the required amount of seeding substances in practical applications are provided.
Short summary
Can disasters caused by extreme rainfall be mitigated through human intervention? Using numerical simulations reproducing a devastating rainfall event, we show that injecting large amounts of ice nuclei into convective clouds can trigger an “overseeding” effect that suppresses raindrop growth. This process disperses intense rainfall downstream and reduces peak 3-hour rainfall by up to 32 %, highlighting the potential of cloud seeding as a new strategy for mitigating heavy rainfall disasters.
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