Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026
Research article
 | Highlight paper
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11 Mar 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 11 Mar 2026

Numerical experiments of cloud seeding for mitigating localization of heavy rainfall: a case study of Mesoscale Convective System in Japan

Yusuke Hiraga, Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua, Shunji Kotsuki, Yoshiharu Suzuki, Shu-Hua Chen, Atsushi Hamada, Kazuaki Yasunaga, and Takuya Funatomi

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3524', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Oct 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yusuke Hiraga, 13 Jan 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3524', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Dec 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yusuke Hiraga, 13 Jan 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (21 Jan 2026) by Gregor C. Leckebusch
AR by Yusuke Hiraga on behalf of the Authors (22 Jan 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (23 Jan 2026) by Gregor C. Leckebusch
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (29 Jan 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (14 Feb 2026)
ED: Publish as is (19 Feb 2026) by Gregor C. Leckebusch
AR by Yusuke Hiraga on behalf of the Authors (04 Mar 2026)  Manuscript 
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Editorial statement
The study investigates the potential of cloud seeding to mitigate extreme rainfall localization associated with mesoscale convective systems. Using a numerical weather prediction model, numerical cloud seeding experiments were conducted artificially increasing ice nuclei concentrations in a double-moment microphysics scheme for the heavy rainfall event. For a disastrous event that occurred in Japan in 2014, the authors show that idealized overseeding can suppress peak rainfall in high risk areas while producing an accompanying rainfall increase downwind. Estimates of the required amount of seeding substances in practical applications are provided.
Short summary
Can disasters caused by extreme rainfall be mitigated through human intervention? Using numerical simulations reproducing a devastating rainfall event, we show that injecting large amounts of ice nuclei into convective clouds can trigger an “overseeding” effect that suppresses raindrop growth. This process disperses intense rainfall downstream and reduces peak 3-hour rainfall by up to 32 %, highlighting the potential of cloud seeding as a new strategy for mitigating heavy rainfall disasters.
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