Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Numerical experiments of cloud seeding for mitigating localization of heavy rainfall: a case study of Mesoscale Convective System in Japan
Download
- Final revised paper (published on 11 Mar 2026)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 19 Sep 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3524', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Oct 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yusuke Hiraga, 13 Jan 2026
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3524', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Dec 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yusuke Hiraga, 13 Jan 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (21 Jan 2026) by Gregor C. Leckebusch
AR by Yusuke Hiraga on behalf of the Authors (22 Jan 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (23 Jan 2026) by Gregor C. Leckebusch
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (29 Jan 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (14 Feb 2026)
ED: Publish as is (19 Feb 2026) by Gregor C. Leckebusch
AR by Yusuke Hiraga on behalf of the Authors (04 Mar 2026)
Manuscript
The authors present a numerical analysis of the potential for cloud seeding to mitigate the rainfall from an extreme historical MCS event in Japan. The paper is interesting and well-written and I think is suitable for publication with moderate revisions that would help strengthen the novelty of the study and to highlight an addition (in my opinion, important) limitation and direction for future work. I also have a few minor grammar suggestions. I doubt I caught all the grammar mistakes, which anyway are so small and infrequent that they do not detract from the quality of the work.
My concern regarding novelty stems from the fact that very little information is provided on numerical cloud seeding studies, particularly those aimed at rainfall mitigation and those based in Japan. This lack of information on previous work made it impossible for anyone who isn’t themselves familiar with the literature to understand how much was new about the present study. That said, the introduction section is already lengthy. Therefore, I recommend creating a new section entitled “Background” or something like that, following the introduction, that can provide further details on methods and findings of a few key previous studies, which will help frame the current work. Some points now provided in the introduction may perhaps be moved into that background section as well.
My other major concern is the lack of mention of what I see as the biggest limitation of the work and one of the biggest questions that needs to be answered if such approaches are ever to be operationalized. The authors examine the effects of cloud seeding directly into the storm area. In an operational context, this is akin to knowing exactly where the storm will take place. MCSs are notoriously difficult to forecast, particularly with respect to precise timing and location. Therefore, it seems unrealistic that such seeding could be accomplished in so localized a way. Instead, one would presumably need, with some multi-hour lead time, a prediction that a larger region is likely to develop an MCS somewhere within it, and seeding is done throughout the region. It is easy to imagine several things as a consequence of this: 1) the amount of AgI or other material needed could increase by orders of magnitude, and 2) the likelihood that some adverse outcome occurs due to rainfall being shifted spatially, rather than mitigated entirely, will increase, perhaps substantially. I suggest that the authors consider followup work that examines seeding, perhaps at lower concentrations, over larger areas, rather than just the storm location, to examine this effect. It may also be wise to perform ensemble simulations using some perturbation approach to better understand how stochastic the result may be.
Minor comments:
Throughout: “downwind” is likely better than “downstream” for atmospheric work
L17 and 18; delete “s” from “altitudes” and “areas”
L25: “… decrease as the maximum reduction…” is awkward wording
L66 and 69: delete uses of “the” except at the start of line 69
L70: delete “to date” as it is unnecessary
L88: change “in” to “on”
L89: the 100 mm/h is unclear. Is that a peak rate over some short time interval?
L97: delete “s” from convections
L103: “under a future climate”
L104: countermeasure is one word
Eqn 1: Does beta have a physical meaning? If so, describe it. Also, what is a more typical value in WRF?
L195 and Table 2: use “design” rather than “flow”
L195: change “was” to “is”
Figure 4: remind the reader what the thick black polygon indicates