Dynamic analysis of drought propagation in the context of climate change and watershed characterization: a quantitative study based on GAMLSS and Copula models

Li, Min; Feng, Zilong; Zhang, Mingfeng; Shi, Lijie; Yao, Yuhang

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-1-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 1

Research article

|

07 Jan 2026

Research article |

| 07 Jan 2026

Dynamic analysis of drought propagation in the context of climate change and watershed characterization: a quantitative study based on GAMLSS and Copula models

Min Li, Zilong Feng, Mingfeng Zhang, Lijie Shi, and Yuhang Yao

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1-2026-supplement

Data sets

Global Monthly Mean Leaf Area Index Climatology, 1981-2015 J. Mao and B. Yan https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1653

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Short summary

This study aims to analyze the impact of climate change and watershed characteristics on the spread of drought. Based on the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape) framework and Copula model, the probability and threshold of drought spread in different seasons were calculated without being affected by climate factors. The results show that: the spatiotemporal variability of drought spread is influenced by climate change and watershed characteristics