Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Belinda Rhein
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Section Hydrology, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Section Hydrology, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
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Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
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Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Patric Kellermann, Kai Schröter, Annegret H. Thieken, Sören-Nils Haubrock, and Heidi Kreibich
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The paper explains the factors which made the Ahr flood event of 2021 the deadliest one in Germany, causing more fatalities than all flood events of the previous 40 years together. It points out that 75% of the fatalities occurred outside of the established flood hazard zones. On the basis of individual fatality reports, factors additionally to early warning and evacuation deficits are identified. A particular result is that beyond danger zones like campsites and cellars the percentage of deaths on the ground floor of buildings (37 %) or outside on the street (18 %) were particularly high. Recommendations for improving emergency management of such unprecedented floods are given.
The paper explains the factors which made the Ahr flood event of 2021 the deadliest one in...
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it...
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