Articles | Volume 25, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4881-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4881-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
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10 Dec 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 10 Dec 2025
| 10 Dec 2025
Constitution of a multicentennial multirisk database in a mountainous environment from composite sources: the example of the Vallouise-Pelvoux municipality (Ecrins, France)
Louise Dallons Thanneur
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Florie Giacona
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Laboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes (LARHRA) – UMR 5190, Grenoble Alpes and Lyon 2 Universities, 38400 Saint-Martin-d'Hères, 69000 Lyon, France
Nicolas Eckert
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
Philippe Frey
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France
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Simon Filhol, Clément Misset, Noélie Bontemps, Diego Cusicanqui, Emmanuel Paquet, Marie Dumont, Olivier Gagliardini, Pascal Lacroix, Simon Gascoin, Guillaume Thirel, Julien Brondex, Pascal Hagenmuller, Eric Larose, Philipp Schoeneich, Denis Roy, Emmanuel Thibert, Nicolas Eckert, Félix de Montety, Robin Mainieri, Alexandre Hauet, Frédéric Gottardi, Johan Berthet, Alexandre Baratier, Frédéric Liébault, Małgorzata Chmiel, Guillaume Piton, Guillaume Chambon, Guillaume James, Philippe Frey, Philip Deline, Laurent Astrade, Christian Vincent, Dominique Laigle, Alain Recking, Fatima Karbou, Adrien Mauss, Mylène Bonnefoy-Demongeot, Firmin Fontaine, Mickael Langlais, Etienne Berthier, and Antoine Blanc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-971, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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On June 21 2024, the village of La Bérarde, in the French Alps, was devastated by a flood destroying centuries old buildings. This study is an interdisciplinary work to decipher the causes and chronology of the event. The flood started with decadal rain falling on a thick snowpack. A lake observed on top of a glacier few days prior, had drained post event. With climate change, should we expect more similar compound events for alpine communities?
Erich H. Peitzsch, Justin T. Martin, Ethan M. Greene, Nicolas Eckert, Adrien Favillier, Jason Konigsberg, Nickolas Kichas, Daniel K. Stahle, Karl W. Birkeland, Kelly Elder, and Gregory T. Pederson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1059–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1059-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1059-2026, 2026
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Snow avalanches pose substantial risks to communities and public safety in Colorado. We studied tree growth patterns impacted by avalanches from 1698 to 2020 alongside meteorological data. We found variations in avalanche frequency revealing a decline in regional avalanche activity and shifts in the causes of these types of large and widespread avalanche events. This knowledge can enhance avalanche safety measures and infrastructure design.
François Doussot, Léo Viallon-Galinier, Nicolas Eckert, and Pascal Hagenmuller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-336, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Avalanches are sensitive to climate warming, but long and reliable records are rare. We combined avalanche observations with weather and snow simulations in the Haute-Maurienne valley (French Alps). This allowed us to reconstruct past avalanche activity and explore future changes. The results show a strong long-term decline in avalanche occurrence, especially in spring, while extreme events decrease more slowly. This study provides quantitative insights to support mountain risk management.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
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We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Léo Viallon-Galinier, Pascal Hagenmuller, and Nicolas Eckert
The Cryosphere, 17, 2245–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, 2023
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Avalanches are a significant issue in mountain areas where they threaten recreationists and human infrastructure. Assessments of avalanche hazards and the related risks are therefore an important challenge for local authorities. Meteorological and snow cover simulations are thus important to support operational forecasting. In this study we combine it with mechanical analysis of snow profiles and find that observed avalanche data improve avalanche activity prediction through statistical methods.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
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This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
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Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Luuk Dorren, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, Nicolas Eckert, Charalampos Saroglou, Massimiliano Schwarz, Markus Stoffel, Daniel Trappmann, Hans-Heini Utelli, and Christine Moos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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In the daily practice of rockfall hazard analysis, trajectory simulations are used to delimit runout zones. To do so, the expert needs to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated groups of trajectories. This is often done on the basis of reach probability values. This paper provides a basis for choosing a reach probability threshold value for delimiting the rockfall runout zone, based on recordings and simulations of recent rockfall events at 18 active rockfall sites in Europe.
Hippolyte Kern, Nicolas Eckert, Vincent Jomelli, Delphine Grancher, Michael Deschatres, and Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta
The Cryosphere, 15, 4845–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, 2021
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Snow avalanches are a major component of the mountain cryosphere that often put people, settlements, and infrastructures at risk. This study investigated avalanche path morphological factors controlling snow deposit volumes, a critical aspect of snow avalanche dynamics that remains poorly known. Different statistical techniques show a slight but significant link between deposit volumes and avalanche path morphology.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
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Editorial statement
The paper develops an innovative methodology for creating a comprehensive multirisk database spanning more than four centuries, which is exceptionally rare in natural hazard studies. Its temporal depth and detailed documentation of impacts provide valuable insights into the long-term dynamics of hazards and their interactions with society. By covering multiple hazard types and cascading events, the study offers broadly transferable methods and findings that will be of interest well beyond the case study area.
The paper develops an innovative methodology for creating a comprehensive multirisk database...
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodology to develop a long-range multirisk database. Combining scattered pre-existing records and intensive research in historical archives provides a 1600–2020 record of past events in a valley of the French Alps. It goes far beyond any inventory existing in terms of number of events, temporal coverage and detailed description of events characteristics in a mountain context. Spatio-temporal patterns are analysed, opening perspective for multirisk assessment.
This paper proposes a methodology to develop a long-range multirisk database. Combining...
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