Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025
Research article
 | 
13 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2025

Assessing atoll island future habitability in the context of climate change using Bayesian networks

Mirna Badillo-Interiano, Jérémy Rohmer, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Virginie Duvat

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Cited articles

Badillo, M., Rohmer, J., Le Cozannet, G., and Duvat, V.: Bayesian network to assess the future risk to atoll island habitability (v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17531782, 2025. 
Baldock, T. E., Shabani, B., and Callaghan, D. P.: Open access Bayesian Belief Networks for estimating the hydrodynamics and shoreline response behind fringing reefs subject to climate changes and reef degradation, Environmental Modelling & Software, 119, 327–340, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.07.001, 2019. 
Banan-Dallalian, M., Shokatian-Beiragh, M., Golshani, A., and Abdi, A.: Use of a Bayesian Network for storm-induced flood risk assessment and effectiveness of ecosystem-based risk reduction measures in coastal areas (Port of Sur, Sultanate of Oman), Ocean Engineering, 270, 113662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.113662, 2023. 
Beuzen, T., Marshall, L., and Splinter, K. D.: A comparison of methods for discretizing continuous variables in Bayesian Networks, Environmental Modelling & Software, 108, 61–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.007, 2018. 
Callaghan, D. P., Baldock, T. E., Shabani, B., and Mumby, P. J.: Communicating physics-based wave model predictions of coral reefs using Bayesian belief networks, Environmental Modelling & Software, 108, 123–132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.021, 2018. 
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Small islands face increasing threats from climate change. In this context, exploring new modeling approaches is needed to improve climate risk assessments. We applied Bayesian Networks to assess the risk to future habitability on four atoll islands. The findings show that Bayesian Networks are powerful tools for efficiently assessing climate-related risks by combining expert judgments and confidence levels, providing a comprehensive framework to assess risks in data-limited island settings.
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