Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025
Research article
 | 
13 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2025

Assessing atoll island future habitability in the context of climate change using Bayesian networks

Mirna Badillo-Interiano, Jérémy Rohmer, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Virginie Duvat

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Short summary
Small islands face increasing threats from climate change. In this context, exploring new modeling approaches is needed to improve climate risk assessments. We applied Bayesian Networks to assess the risk to future habitability on four atoll islands. The findings show that Bayesian Networks are powerful tools for efficiently assessing climate-related risks by combining expert judgments and confidence levels, providing a comprehensive framework to assess risks in data-limited island settings.
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