Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4527-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
Research article
 | 
13 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 13 Nov 2025

Assessing atoll island future habitability in the context of climate change using Bayesian networks

Mirna Badillo-Interiano, Jérémy Rohmer, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Virginie Duvat

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Short summary
Small islands face increasing threats from climate change. In this context, exploring new modeling approaches is needed to improve climate risk assessments. We applied Bayesian Networks to assess the risk to future habitability on four atoll islands. The findings show that Bayesian Networks are powerful tools for efficiently assessing climate-related risks by combining expert judgments and confidence levels, providing a comprehensive framework to assess risks in data-limited island settings.
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