Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3921-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3921-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150: sensitivities to urban development, sea level rise, and adaptation
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2628CN, the Netherlands
Risk and Disaster Management, HKV, Lelystad, 8232JN, the Netherlands
Martine van den Boomen
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2628CN, the Netherlands
Centre of Expertise HRTech, Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences, Rotterdam, 3089JR, the Netherlands
Ties Rijcken
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2628CN, the Netherlands
Matthijs Kok
Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2628CN, the Netherlands
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We studied who pays and who benefits when Dutch homes are made more flood-ready. Using about thirteen thousand homes and several flood and damage methods for today and 2050, we found flood damage is concentrated in a small share of homes and split between homeowners, insurers, and the government. The savings from protecting a home are split the same way, yet the homeowner pays for it, so sharing the cost could help. The estimates also vary too much between methods to single out individual homes.
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This study proposes a new method for predicting extreme events such as floods on the river Meuse. The current method was shown to be unreliable as it did not predict a recent flood. We developed a model that includes information from experts and combines this with measurements. We found that this approach gives more accurate predictions, particularly for extreme events. The research is important for predictions of extreme flood levels that are necessary for protecting communities against floods.
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Short summary
This study analyses flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring the interplay between rising sea levels, urban development, and flood protection measures. Without measures, flood exposure will increase, especially after 2100. The Maeslant storm surge barrier had the most impact on flood exposure, followed by sea level rise and urban development. Varied exposure levels across neighbourhoods suggest the need for localized adaptation strategies.
This study analyses flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring...
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