Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3921-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3921-2025
Research article
 | 
14 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 14 Oct 2025

Flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150: sensitivities to urban development, sea level rise, and adaptation

Cees Oerlemans, Martine van den Boomen, Ties Rijcken, and Matthijs Kok

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Cited articles

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Aerts, J. C. J. H. and Botzen, W. J. W.: Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands, Global Environ. Chang., 21, 1045–1060, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.04.005, 2011. 
Agtersloot, R. and Paarlberg, A.: WAQUA productieberekeningen Rijn-Maasmonding, Wettelijk beoordelingsinstrumentarium 2017, https://iplo.nl/publish/pages/157051/1220082-001-hye-0012-v4-r-waquaproductieberekeningenbovenrivierenmaas.pdf (last access: 2 July 2024), 2016 (in Dutch). 
Andreadis, K. M., Wing, O. E. J., Colven, E., Gleason, C. J., Bates, P. D., and Brown, C. M.: Urbanizing the floodplain: global changes of imperviousness in flood-prone areas, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9197, 2022. 
Brody, S. D., Sebastian, A., Blessing, R., and Bedient, P. B.: Case study results from southeast Houston, Texas: identifying the impacts of residential location on flood risk and loss, J. Flood Risk Manag., 11, S110–S120, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12184, 2018. 
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This study analyses flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring the interplay between rising sea levels, urban development, and flood protection measures. Without measures, flood exposure will increase, especially after 2100. The Maeslant storm surge barrier had the most impact on flood exposure, followed by sea level rise and urban development. Varied exposure levels across neighbourhoods suggest the need for localized adaptation strategies.
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