Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3921-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.Flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150: sensitivities to urban development, sea level rise, and adaptation
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- Final revised paper (published on 14 Oct 2025)
- Preprint (discussion started on 15 Jan 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2910', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Mar 2025
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Cees Oerlemans, 10 Apr 2025
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RC3: 'Reply on AC1', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Apr 2025
- AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Cees Oerlemans, 23 Apr 2025
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RC3: 'Reply on AC1', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Apr 2025
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Cees Oerlemans, 10 Apr 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2910', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Apr 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Cees Oerlemans, 23 Apr 2025
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (03 May 2025) by Margreth Keiler

AR by Cees Oerlemans on behalf of the Authors (29 May 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Jul 2025) by Margreth Keiler
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (18 Jul 2025)
ED: Publish as is (22 Jul 2025) by Margreth Keiler

AR by Cees Oerlemans on behalf of the Authors (25 Jul 2025)
Manuscript
The study conducts an exposure assessment for unembanked areas in Rotterdam for the years 1970 to 2150 accounting for different extreme water levels. Building exposure is estimated for different scenario combinations and neighborhoods to identify the contribution of sea level rise, urban development and adaptation (i.e. construction of the Maeslant barrier and elevating new buildings) to the exposure. The study presents a comprehensive framework for local exposure assessments, integrating future development of building infrastructure and adaptation. The manuscript is written clearly and the text is supported by insightful figures. Though the idea of the exposure assessment does not present an entirely new approach and the findings are sometimes relatively obvious, the study combines many different contributing factors to future exposure and the framework is interesting for further local studies. I have some general and also more specific comments that I believe could increase the scientific and presentation quality of the manuscript. I hope the authors consider the comments useful.
General comments:
Specific comments:
Page 3, line 74-86: I find it unusual to refer to the findings already in the introduction. I would suggest to only describe the four-step process here without any interpretation of the results yet.
Page 4, line 91-101: The first paragraph of the Methods and data section reads more like part of the introduction. Perhaps, try to reduce this paragraph and/or include it in the introduction.
Page 4, line 109: Maybe mention that altering the design flood elevation is a scenario accounting for adaptation/accommodation.
Page 7, line 178: Why did the authors choose a scenario which involves elevating the design flood level by just 20 cm? Are there concrete actions/plans considering this as a new design height? To me it doesn’t sound like too much of a difference to the reference scenario and I am wondering why the authors didn’t choose a higher design level? Also, the authors could consider to elaborate other adaptation options in their discussion, like e.g. household-level adaptation, which might eliminate exposure in cases of lower water levels.
Page 8, line 189-191: To quantify exposure, the authors calculate the difference between water levels and the elevation of the housing unit. It appears that they are not accounting for hydrological connectivity here. This means housings behind structures higher than the water level are eventually not flooded. It would be good to mention this as a limitation. A similar issue is mentioned in the discussion about the missing seawall information.
Page 15, line 341-343: “Hence the comparative subplots show that stopping urban development after 2020 could ultimately prevent exposure to 1000-year events of all 22,600 housing units planned for construction.” I find this finding a bit too obvious. Perhaps there is no need to write this.
Page 20, line 421-427: Is the height information of the flood-proofing measures not reflected in the DTM? Referring to my earlier comment, if elevation information from the DTM is accurate for protections measures it might be valuable to assess exposed areas based on hydrological connectivity rather than comparing the water level to each housing elevation.
Page 21, line 441-450: The authors compare their estimates to the results of other exposure studies. Though from what they write it sounds like these studies assess exposure as monetary value. How is the comparison of these studies with the estimates of relative exposure of housing units from this study justified?
Page 23, line 525: Is there a reference for port relocation in Hamburg? In the introduction this is only mentioned for Houston, Copenhagen and Rotterdam.
Temporal line plots: I think it could be beneficial to explain the time line differences of the x-axis scales in each line plot caption in case readers are just looking into the figures.
Technical comments:
Page 1, line 15-18: “Temporal variations in exposure rates are attributed […] and urban development.” The two sentences mean the same and one of them could be removed here.
Page 5, Figure 1: Maybe write in the “exposure”-box that the data for urban development plans only reaches until 2040 to make sure it does not cover the full period of investigation.
Page 5, line 120: It should be Table 1 here, not Table 2.
Page 7, line 161: I suggest to mention all tested return periods here instead of writing “from 10 to 1000 years”.
Page 7, line 169: “These footprints were combined with elevation data from the Digital Terrain Model of the Netherlands (AHN3, 0.5-meter resolution raster) [to assign elevation values to each housing unit]. By assigning specific elevation values to each housing unit, we can accurately assess their potential exposure given various climate scenarios.” I would suggest the authors to remove the words in [...] to avoid repetition and add a full stop at the end of the second sentence.
Page 7, line 183: “The Design Flood Elevation is one the important components …” Look into the grammar here.
Page 7, line 183 – page 8, line 188: Paragraph is formatted like the subsequent heading.
Chapter 3: Chapter 3 appears to be a bit detached from the rest of the text. I would propose to put chapter “3 Case Study: Rotterdam’s unembanked areas” at the beginning of the Methods section as a description of the study site. Chapter 3.1. and 3.2 can be included in the Results, as they describe the findings of your flood hazard calculation and data processing.
Page 9, line 203: Should it be “have been constructed on building lots situated below the NAP+3.6 m elevation”, as this is the design flood elevation?
Page 11, line 242: “3.2 Urban development between 1970-2050” Should it rather be 2040 as this is the time span of the urban development plans?
Page 17, Figure 5: The reference scenario should be mentioned in the legend.