Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3355-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3355-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
Research article
 | 
12 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 12 Sep 2025

The dynamics of peak head responses at Dutch canal dikes and the impact of climate change

Bart Strijker and Matthijs Kok

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Short summary
This study examines how hydraulic head levels in canal dikes respond to heavy rainfall, potentially causing instabilities and flooding. Using time series models and simulating long-term head levels, we identified clusters of dikes where head peaks are driven by similar rainfall events. Statistical analyses show that extreme and yearly conditions are close. However, extreme conditions are expected to become more frequent due to climate change, though some dikes will be less affected than others.
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