Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2803-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2803-2025
Research article
 | 
22 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 22 Aug 2025

Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 2: An evaluation of predictability using a time-lagged cloud-resolving ensemble system​​​​​​​

Chung-Chieh Wang, Duc Van Nguyen, Thang Van Vu, Pham Thi Thanh Nga, Pi-Yu Chuang, and Kien Ba Truong

Related authors

Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
A modeling study of an extreme rainfall event along the northern coast of Taiwan on 2 June 2017
Chung-Chieh Wang, Ting-Yu Yeh, Chih-Sheng Chang, Ming-Siang Li, Kazuhisa Tsuboki, and Ching-Hwang Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 501–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-501-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Evaluation of Mei-yu heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in Taiwan by a cloud-resolving model for three seasons of 2012–2014
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Chih-Sheng Chang, Kazuhisa Tsuboki, Shin-Yi Huang, and Guo-Chen Leu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 23–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Ancell, B.​​​​​​​ and Hakim, G. J.: Comparing adjoint- and ensemble sensitivity analysis with applications to observation targeting, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 4117–4134, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1904.1, 2007. 
Cattoën, C., Robertson, D. E., Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., and Carey-Smith, T. K.: Calibrating Hourly Precipitation Forecasts with Daily Observations, J. Hydrometeorol., 21, 1655–1673, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0246.1, 2020. 
Coleman, A. and Ancell, B.: Toward the improvement of high-impact probabilistic forecasts with a sensitivity-based convective-scale ensemble subsetting technique, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 4995–5014, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0043.1​​​​​​​, 2020. 
Cotton, W. R., Tripoli, G. J., Rauber, R. M., and Mulvihill, E. A.: Numerical simulation of the effects of varying ice crystal nucleation rates and aggregation processes on orographic snowfall, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 25, 1658–1680, 1986. 
Deardorff, J. W.: Stratocumulus-capped mixed layers derived from a three-dimensional model, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 18, 495–527, 1980. 
Download
Short summary
The study assesses the practical predictability of an extreme rainfall event on 8 to 12 December 2018 over central Vietnam using quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from a time-lagged cloud-resolving ensemble system. To do this, 29 time-lagged (8 d in the forecast range) high-resolution (2.5 km) members were run every 6 h from 3 to 10 December 2018. Results reveal that the cloud-resolving model predicted the rainfall fields in the short range (less than 3 d) for 10 December (the rainiest day).
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint