Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2803-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2803-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
Research article
 | 
22 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 22 Aug 2025

Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 2: An evaluation of predictability using a time-lagged cloud-resolving ensemble system​​​​​​​

Chung-Chieh Wang, Duc Van Nguyen, Thang Van Vu, Pham Thi Thanh Nga, Pi-Yu Chuang, and Kien Ba Truong

Data sets

The TIGGE Project and Its Achievements (https://confluence.ecmwf. int/display/TIGGE/TIGGE+archive) R. Swinbank et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMSD- 13-00191.1

NCEP GFS 0.25 Degree Global Forecast Grids Historical Archive, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory updated daily (https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds084.1/) National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Weather Service/NOAA/U.S. Department of Commerce https://doi.org/10.5065/D65D8PWK

NCEP GDAS/FNL 0.25 Degree Global Tropospheric Analyses and Forecast Grids, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory updated daily (https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/d083003/#) National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Weather Service/NOAA/U.S. Department of Commerce https://doi.org/10.5065/D65Q4T4Z

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Short summary
The study assesses the practical predictability of an extreme rainfall event on 8 to 12 December 2018 over central Vietnam using quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from a time-lagged cloud-resolving ensemble system. To do this, 29 time-lagged (8 d in the forecast range) high-resolution (2.5 km) members were run every 6 h from 3 to 10 December 2018. Results reveal that the cloud-resolving model predicted the rainfall fields in the short range (less than 3 d) for 10 December (the rainiest day).
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