Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties in glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling results using the modelling code r.avaflow

Rinzin, Sonam; Dunning, Stuart; Carr, Rachel Joanne; Sattar, Ashim; Mergili, Martin

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 6

Research article

|

03 Jun 2025

Research article |

| 03 Jun 2025

Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties in glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling results using the modelling code r.avaflow

Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Ashim Sattar, and Martin Mergili

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025-supplement

Data sets

High Mountain Asia 8-meter DEM mosaics derived from optical imagery (1) D. Shean https://doi.org/10.5067/KXOVQ9L172S2

Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Global NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) https://doi.org/10.5069/G9445JDF

NASADEM Merged DEM Global 1 arc second V001 NASA JPL https://doi.org/10.5069/G93T9FD9

ALOS World 3D 30 meter DEM (V3.2) Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) https://doi.org/10.5069/G94M92HB

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Short summary

We modelled multiple glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios (84 simulations) and tested the effect of nine key input parameters on the modelling results using r.avaflow. Our results highlight that GLOF modelling results are subject to uncertainty from the multiple input parameters. The variation in the volume of mass movement entering the lake causes the highest uncertainty in the modelled GLOF, followed by the DEM dataset and the origin of mass movement.