Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties in glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling results using the modelling code r.avaflow
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Stuart Dunning
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Rachel Joanne Carr
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Ashim Sattar
School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
Martin Mergili
Department of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ice Avalanche-Triggered Glacier Lake Outburst Flood: Hazard Assessment at Jiongpuco, Southeastern Tibet S. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17142102
- Distribution patterns and risk assessment of potential ice avalanches and glacier lake outburst floods in southeastern Tibetan Plateau X. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114217
- New insights on the 2020 Jinwuco glacial lake outburst flood: considering ice content within the moraine dam H. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2026.2649567
- Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle-Derived Spatially Resolved Photogrammetry Enhances Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Assessment and Modeling G. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/MGRS.2026.3699471
- Increasing exposure to potential flooding in high-mountain catchments C. Watson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-70268-0
- Process Chain of a Potential Transboundary Glacial Lake Outburst Flood at Qiangzongke Co, Southwestern Tibet, China, Using Multi-Source Data and Hydrodynamic Modeling M. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-026-00733-x
- Effect of landslide location on glacial lake outburst flood at Badongcuo, Tibetan Himalaya Y. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136122
- Basin-scale inventory and exposure assessment of hanging glaciers, Central Himalaya N. Krishnan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00205-8
- Calibration and parameterization of the two-phase debris flow model r.avaflow using 72 large-scale flume experiments K. Boie et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2026.110576
- Advances in Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) Risk Assessment: From Physical Processes to Physical–Social Coupling B. Cao & C. Xu https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2026.10.003
- Advancing glacial lake hazard and risk assessment in Bhutan through hydrodynamic flood mapping and exposure analysis S. Rinzin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026
- Permafrost distribution, degradation, and potential mass movement cascades in the western Himalaya using machine learning and numerical models A. Alangadan & A. Sattar https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4
- Reconstruction of the 1989 Laguna del Cerro Largo GLOF: an interdisciplinary understanding of GLOF Impacts J. Burton et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5241-2026
- The 2024 cascading glacial lake outburst flood in the Thame Valley of Everest region, Nepal: process, impacts and implications N. Khadka et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4131-2026
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ice Avalanche-Triggered Glacier Lake Outburst Flood: Hazard Assessment at Jiongpuco, Southeastern Tibet S. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17142102
- Distribution patterns and risk assessment of potential ice avalanches and glacier lake outburst floods in southeastern Tibetan Plateau X. Tian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114217
- New insights on the 2020 Jinwuco glacial lake outburst flood: considering ice content within the moraine dam H. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2026.2649567
- Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle-Derived Spatially Resolved Photogrammetry Enhances Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Assessment and Modeling G. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/MGRS.2026.3699471
- Increasing exposure to potential flooding in high-mountain catchments C. Watson et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-70268-0
- Process Chain of a Potential Transboundary Glacial Lake Outburst Flood at Qiangzongke Co, Southwestern Tibet, China, Using Multi-Source Data and Hydrodynamic Modeling M. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-026-00733-x
- Effect of landslide location on glacial lake outburst flood at Badongcuo, Tibetan Himalaya Y. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136122
- Basin-scale inventory and exposure assessment of hanging glaciers, Central Himalaya N. Krishnan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00205-8
- Calibration and parameterization of the two-phase debris flow model r.avaflow using 72 large-scale flume experiments K. Boie et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2026.110576
- Advances in Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) Risk Assessment: From Physical Processes to Physical–Social Coupling B. Cao & C. Xu https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2026.10.003
- Advancing glacial lake hazard and risk assessment in Bhutan through hydrodynamic flood mapping and exposure analysis S. Rinzin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026
- Permafrost distribution, degradation, and potential mass movement cascades in the western Himalaya using machine learning and numerical models A. Alangadan & A. Sattar https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00217-4
- Reconstruction of the 1989 Laguna del Cerro Largo GLOF: an interdisciplinary understanding of GLOF Impacts J. Burton et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5241-2026
- The 2024 cascading glacial lake outburst flood in the Thame Valley of Everest region, Nepal: process, impacts and implications N. Khadka et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4131-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 03 Nov 2026
Short summary
We modelled multiple glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios (84 simulations) and tested the effect of nine key input parameters on the modelling results using r.avaflow. Our results highlight that GLOF modelling results are subject to uncertainty from the multiple input parameters. The variation in the volume of mass movement entering the lake causes the highest uncertainty in the modelled GLOF, followed by the DEM dataset and the origin of mass movement.
We modelled multiple glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios (84 simulations) and tested...
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