Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1841-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 03 Jun 2025
| 03 Jun 2025
Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties in glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling results using the modelling code r.avaflow
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Stuart Dunning
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Rachel Joanne Carr
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Ashim Sattar
School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
Martin Mergili
Department of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
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Neil Ross, Rebecca J. Sanderson, Bernd Kulessa, Martin Siegert, Guy J. G. Paxman, Keir A. Nichols, Matthew R. Siegfried, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Michael J. Bentley, Tom A. Jordan, Christine L. Batchelor, David Small, Olaf Eisen, Kate Winter, Robert G. Bingham, S. Louise Callard, Rachel Carr, Christine F. Dow, Helen A. Fricker, Emily Hill, Benjamin H. Hills, Coen Hofstede, Hafeez Jeofry, Felipe Napoleoni, and Wilson Sauthoff
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3625, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We review previous research into a group of fast-flowing Antarctic ice streams, the Foundation-Patuxent-Academy System. Previously, we knew relatively little how these ice streams flow, how they interact with the ocean, what their geological history was, and how they might evolve in a warming world. By reviewing existing information on these ice streams, we identify the future research needed to determine how they function, and their potential contribution to global sea level rise.
Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Simon Allen, Sonam Wangchuk, and Ashim Sattar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3206, 2025
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This study redefines dangerous glacial lakes in Bhutan by integrating flood modelling with downstream exposure and vulnerability data. It finds that around 22,399 people, 2,613 buildings, and critical infrastructure are at risk from GLOFs. Thorthormi Tsho is classified as very high danger, with five other lakes posing high threats. Fourteen LGUs face high or very high GLOF danger, including six and three lakes not previously recognized, highlighting the need for stronger GLOF preparedness.
Martin Mergili, Hanna Pfeffer, Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Christian Zangerl, and Shiva Prasad Pudasaini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-213, 2025
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We present a new version of the landslide model r.avaflow. It includes a model where different materials move on top of each other instead of mixing; a model supporting the entire range from block sliding to flowing; a model for slow-moving processes; and an interface for virtual reality visualization. Based on the results for four case studies we conclude that, at the moment, our enhancements are very useful for visualization of landslides for awareness building and environmental education.
Johannes Jakob Fürst, David Farías-Barahona, Thomas Bruckner, Lucia Scaff, Martin Mergili, Santiago Montserrat, and Humberto Peña
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3103, 2025
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The 1987 Parraguirre ice-rock avalanche developed into a devastating debris-flow causing loss of many lives and inflicting severe damage near Santiago, Chile. Here, we revise this event combining various observational records with modelling techniques. In this year, important snow cover coincided with warm days in spring. We further quantify the total solid volume, and forward important upward corrections for the trigger and flood volumes. Finally, river damming was key for high flow mobility.
J. Rachel Carr, Emily A. Hill, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 2719–2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024, 2024
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The Greenland Ice Sheet is one of the world's largest glaciers and is melting quickly in response to climate change. It contains fast-flowing channels of ice that move ice from Greenland's centre to its coasts and allow Greenland to react quickly to climate warming. As a result, we want to predict how these glaciers will behave in the future, but there are lots of uncertainties. Here we assess the impacts of two main sources of uncertainties in glacier models.
Simon K. Allen, Ashim Sattar, Owen King, Guoqing Zhang, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tandong Yao, and Tobias Bolch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3765–3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3765-2022, 2022
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This study demonstrates how the threat of a very large outburst from a future lake can be feasibly assessed alongside that from current lakes to inform disaster risk management within a transboundary basin between Tibet and Nepal. Results show that engineering measures and early warning systems would need to be coupled with effective land use zoning and programmes to strengthen local response capacities in order to effectively reduce the risk associated with current and future outburst events.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Sophie Goliber, Taryn Black, Ginny Catania, James M. Lea, Helene Olsen, Daniel Cheng, Suzanne Bevan, Anders Bjørk, Charlie Bunce, Stephen Brough, J. Rachel Carr, Tom Cowton, Alex Gardner, Dominik Fahrner, Emily Hill, Ian Joughin, Niels J. Korsgaard, Adrian Luckman, Twila Moon, Tavi Murray, Andrew Sole, Michael Wood, and Enze Zhang
The Cryosphere, 16, 3215–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3215-2022, 2022
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Terminus traces have been used to understand how Greenland's glaciers have changed over time; however, manual digitization is time-intensive, and a lack of coordination leads to duplication of efforts. We have compiled a dataset of over 39 000 terminus traces for 278 glaciers for scientific and machine learning applications. We also provide an overview of an updated version of the Google Earth Engine Digitization Tool (GEEDiT), which has been developed specifically for the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Chuanxi Zhao, Wei Yang, Matthew Westoby, Baosheng An, Guangjian Wu, Weicai Wang, Zhongyan Wang, Yongjie Wang, and Stuart Dunning
The Cryosphere, 16, 1333–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1333-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1333-2022, 2022
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On 22 March 2021, a ~ 50 Mm 3 ice-rock avalanche occurred from 6500 m a.s.l. in the Sedongpu basin, southeastern Tibet. It caused temporary blockage of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, a major tributary of the Brahmaputra. We utilize field investigations, high-resolution satellite imagery, seismic records, and meteorological data to analyse the evolution of the 2021 event and its impact, discuss potential drivers, and briefly reflect on implications for the sustainable development of the region.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
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The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3159-2021, 2021
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This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
William D. Smith, Stuart A. Dunning, Stephen Brough, Neil Ross, and Jon Telling
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 1053–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-1053-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-1053-2020, 2020
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Glacial landslides are difficult to detect and likely underestimated due to rapid covering or dispersal. Without improved detection rates we cannot constrain their impact on glacial dynamics or their potential climatically driven increases in occurrence. Here we present a new open-access tool (GERALDINE) that helps a user detect 92 % of these events over the past 38 years on a global scale. We demonstrate its ability by identifying two new, large glacial landslides in the Hayes Range, Alaska.
Jennifer F. Arthur, Chris R. Stokes, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, J. Rachel Carr, and Amber A. Leeson
The Cryosphere, 14, 4103–4120, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4103-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4103-2020, 2020
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Surface meltwater lakes can flex and fracture ice shelves, potentially leading to ice shelf break-up. A long-term record of lake evolution on Shackleton Ice Shelf is produced using optical satellite imagery and compared to surface air temperature and modelled surface melt. The results reveal that lake clustering on the ice shelf is linked to melt-enhancing feedbacks. Peaks in total lake area and volume closely correspond with intense snowmelt events rather than with warmer seasonal temperatures.
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Short summary
We modelled multiple glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios (84 simulations) and tested the effect of nine key input parameters on the modelling results using r.avaflow. Our results highlight that GLOF modelling results are subject to uncertainty from the multiple input parameters. The variation in the volume of mass movement entering the lake causes the highest uncertainty in the modelled GLOF, followed by the DEM dataset and the origin of mass movement.
We modelled multiple glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) scenarios (84 simulations) and tested...
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