Articles | Volume 24, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Melissa Wood
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
National Oceanography Centre, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Ivan D. Haigh
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Quan Quan Le
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Hung Nghia Nguyen
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Hoang Ba Tran
Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), 658th Vo Van Kiet Avenue, Ward 1, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Stephen E. Darby
School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
Robert Marsh
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Nikolaos Skliris
School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Joël J.-M. Hirschi
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Related authors
Stephen E. Darby, Ivan D. Haigh, Melissa Wood, Bui Duong, Tien Le Thuy Du, Thao Phuong Bui, Justin Sheffield, Hal Voepel, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3506, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We use model simulations to see what changes have been occurring to Mekong and Red River flows, 1970–2019, due to changes in tropical cyclone (TC)-linked precipitation. Results suggest that the highest river flows in multiple sub-catchments have been increasing over time, with coastal zones most intensely affected due to the combination of TC track and wet soils from prior rainfall. Climate change may exacerbate this TC-linked risk in the future making it a topic of strategic importance.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Ligin Joseph, Nikolaos Skliris, Vishnu S., Dipanjan Dey, and Robert Marsh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3886, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
We studied marine heatwaves in the North Indian Ocean using sea surface temperatures with long-term warming removed to capture true short-term extremes. These heatwaves often interact with the monsoon's natural wet–dry cycles (MISO), shaping rainfall during and after events. After termination, extreme rainfall anomalies appear over parts of South Asia as revived monsoon winds release stored ocean heat and moisture.
Stephen E. Darby, Ivan D. Haigh, Melissa Wood, Bui Duong, Tien Le Thuy Du, Thao Phuong Bui, Justin Sheffield, Hal Voepel, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3506, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We use model simulations to see what changes have been occurring to Mekong and Red River flows, 1970–2019, due to changes in tropical cyclone (TC)-linked precipitation. Results suggest that the highest river flows in multiple sub-catchments have been increasing over time, with coastal zones most intensely affected due to the combination of TC track and wet soils from prior rainfall. Climate change may exacerbate this TC-linked risk in the future making it a topic of strategic importance.
Thomas P. Collings, Callum J. R. Murphy-Barltrop, Conor Murphy, Ivan D. Haigh, Paul D. Bates, and Niall D. Quinn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1138, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Determining the threshold above which events are considered extreme is an important consideration for many modelling procedures. We propose an extension of an existing data-driven method for automatic threshold selection. We test our approach on tide gauge records, and show that it outperforms existing techniques. This helps improve estimates of extreme sea levels, and we hope other researchers will use this method for other natural hazards.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-17, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains the major source of uncertainty.
Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H. E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
State Planet, 3-slre1, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The EU Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise’s Assessment Report strives to synthesize the current scientific knowledge on sea level rise and its impacts across local, national, and EU scales to support evidence-based policy and decision-making, primarily targeting coastal areas. This paper complements IPCC reports by documenting the state of knowledge of observed and 21st century projected changes in mean and extreme sea levels with more regional information for EU seas as scoped with stakeholders.
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
Jun Yu Puah, Ivan D. Haigh, David Lallemant, Kyle Morgan, Dongju Peng, Masashi Watanabe, and Adam D. Switzer
Ocean Sci., 20, 1229–1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal currents have wide implications for port activities, transport of sediments, and coral reef ecosystems; thus a deeper understanding of their characteristics is needed. We collected data on current velocities for a year using current meters at shallow waters in Singapore. The strength of the currents is primarily affected by tides and winds and generally increases during the monsoon seasons across various frequencies.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated six high-resolution global precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. MSWEP and ERA5 showed better performance, but spatial variability was high. The findings highlight the importance of careful dataset selection for river discharge modelling due to the lack of a universally superior dataset. Further improvements in global precipitation data products are needed.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Andrea Gasparotto, Stephen E. Darby, Julian Leyland, and Paul A. Carling
Earth Surf. Dynam., 11, 343–361, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-343-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-11-343-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study the processes leading to bank failures in the hypertidal Severn Estuary are studied employing numerical models and field observations. Results highlight that the periodic fluctuations in water levels drive an imbalance in the resisting (hydrostatic pressure) versus driving (pore water pressure) forces causing a frequent oscillation of bank stability between stable (at high tide) and unstable states (at low tide) both on semidiurnal bases and in the spring–neap transition.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Matthew Clark, Robert Marsh, and James Harle
Ocean Sci., 18, 549–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The European Slope Current (SC) is a northward-flowing current running parallel to the UK coastline. It is forced by changes in the density gradient of the wider North Atlantic Ocean. As the North Atlantic has warmed since the late 1990s, these gradients have changed strength and moved, reducing the volume and speed of water feeding into the SC. The SC flows into the North Sea, where changes in the species distribution of some plankton and fish have been seen due to the warming inputs.
Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Md Mamunur Rashid, Paula Camus, and Ivan D. Haigh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6203–6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse dependences between different flooding drivers around the USA coastline, where the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern and southwestern coasts are regions of high dependence between flooding drivers. Dependence is higher during the tropical season in the Gulf and at some locations on the East Coast but higher during the extratropical season on the West Coast. The analysis gives new insights on locations, driver combinations, and the time of the year when compound flooding is likely.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3339-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
Paul R. Halloran, Jennifer K. McWhorter, Beatriz Arellano Nava, Robert Marsh, and William Skirving
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the latest version of a simple model for simulating coastal oceanography in response to changes in weather and climate. The latest revision of this model makes scientific improvements but focuses on improvements that allow the model to be run simply at large scales and for long periods of time to explore the implications of (for example) future climate change along large areas of coastline.
Gandy Maria Rosales Quintana, Robert Marsh, and Luis Alfredo Icochea Salas
Ocean Sci., 17, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1385-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1385-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is a key influence on upwelling of nutrient-rich waters associated ecosystems off Peru. To quantify this influence, we backtrack upwelling waters in a computer model of ocean currents, annually, over 1989–2007. The EUC influence varies from year to year, dominating in warm El Niño years, when the EUC extends much closer to the Peruvian coast. In other years, more
localupwelling is associated with coastal winds, coincident with major key population shifts.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Sepehr Eslami, Piet Hoekstra, Herman W. J. Kernkamp, Nam Nguyen Trung, Dung Do Duc, Hung Nguyen Nghia, Tho Tran Quang, Arthur van Dam, Stephen E. Darby, Daniel R. Parsons, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Lisanne Braat, and Maarten van der Vegt
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Increased salt intrusion jeopardizes freshwater supply to the Mekong Delta, and the current trends are often inaccurately associated with sea level rise. Using observations and models, we show that salinity is highly sensitive to ocean surge, tides, water demand, and upstream discharge. We show that anthropogenic riverbed incision has significantly amplified salt intrusion, exemplifying the importance of preserving sediment budget and riverbed levels to protect deltas against salt intrusion.
Paula Camus, Ivan D. Haigh, Ahmed A. Nasr, Thomas Wahl, Stephen E. Darby, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal regions, floods can arise through concurrent drivers, such as precipitation, river discharge, storm surge, and waves, which exacerbate the impact. In this study, we identify hotspots of compound flooding along the southern coast of the North Atlantic Ocean and the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. This regional assessment can be considered a screening tool for coastal management that provides information about which areas are more predisposed to experience compound flooding.
Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Colin G. Jones, Lee de Mora, Till Kuhlbrodt, Ekatarina E. Popova, A. J. George Nurser, Joel Hirschi, Adam T. Blaker, Andrew C. Coward, Edward W. Blockley, and Alistair A. Sellar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3437–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean plays a key role in modulating the Earth’s climate. Understanding this role is critical when using models to project future climate change. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate their realism against the ocean's observed state. Here we validate UKESM1, a new Earth system model, focusing on the realism of its ocean physics and circulation, as well as its biological cycles and productivity. While we identify biases, generally the model performs well over a wide range of properties.
Yasser Hamdi, Ivan D. Haigh, Sylvie Parey, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1461–1465, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1461-2021, 2021
Pablo Ortega, Jon I. Robson, Matthew Menary, Rowan T. Sutton, Adam Blaker, Agathe Germe, Jöel J.-M. Hirschi, Bablu Sinha, Leon Hermanson, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Deep Labrador Sea densities are receiving increasing attention because of their link to many of the processes that govern decadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic and their potential use as a precursor of those changes. This article explores those links and how they are represented in global climate models, documenting the main differences across models. Models are finally compared with observational products to identify the ones that reproduce the links more realistically.
Emma L. Worthington, Ben I. Moat, David A. Smeed, Jennifer V. Mecking, Robert Marsh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The RAPID array has observed the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004, but the AMOC was directly calculated only five times from 1957–2004. Here we create a statistical regression model from RAPID data, relating AMOC changes to density changes within the different water masses at 26° N, and apply it to historical hydrographic data. The resulting 1981–2016 record shows that the AMOC from 2008–2012 was its weakest since the mid-1980s, but it shows no overall decline.
Adam T. Blaker, Manoj Joshi, Bablu Sinha, David P. Stevens, Robin S. Smith, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 275–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
FORTE 2.0 is a flexible coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model that can be run on modest hardware. We present two 2000-year simulations which show that FORTE 2.0 is capable of producing a stable climate. Earlier versions of FORTE were used for a wide range of studies, ranging from aquaplanet configurations to investigating the cold European winters of 2009–2010. This paper introduces the updated model for which the code and configuration are now publicly available.
Cited articles
Anh, L. T., Takagi, H., Thao, N. D., and Esteban, M.: Investigation of awareness of typhoon and storm surge in the Mekong Delta–Recollection of 1997 Typhoon Linda, J. Jpn. Soc. Civ. Eng. Ser. B3, 73, 168–173, 2017.
Bangalore, M., Hallegatte, S., Bonzanigo, L., Kane, T., Fay, M., Narloch, U., Treguer, D., Rozenberg, J., and Vogt-Schilb, A.: Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty, Climate Change and Development, World Bank, Washington, D.C., http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22787 (last access: 18 October 2024), 2016.
Bates, P. D., Lane, S. N., and Ferguson R. I.: ations in Environmental Hydraulics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., ISBN 0-470-84359-4, 2005.
Blake, E. S. and Zelinsky, D. A.: National hurricane center tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Harvey (AL092017), National Hurricane Center: Silver Spring, MD, USA, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092017_Harvey.pdf (last access: 16 October 2024), 2018.
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I. D., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Haarsma, R. J., and Aerts, J. C.: Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM, Scientific Data, 7, 40, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2, 2020.
Bloemendaal, N., de Moel, H., Martinez, A. B., Muis, S., Haigh, I. D., van der Wiel, K., Haarsma, R. J., Ward, P. J., Roberts, M. J., Dullaart, J. C., and Aerts, J. C.: A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk, Science Advances, 8, eabm8438, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm8438, 2022.
Brown, S. and Nicholls, R. J.: Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: the case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna, Sci. Total Environ., 527, 362–374, 2015.
Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., Woodroffe, C. D., Hanson, S., Hinkel, J., Kebede, A. S., Neumann, B., and Vafeidis, A. T.: Sea-Level Rise Impacts and Responses: A Global Perspective, in: Coastal Hazards. Coastal Research Library, vol. 1000, edtied by: Finkl, C., Springer, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_5, 2013.
Camus, P., Haigh, I. D., Nasr, A. A., Wahl, T., Darby, S. E., and Nicholls, R. J.: Regional analysis of multivariate compound coastal flooding potential around Europe and environs: sensitivity analysis and spatial patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2021–2040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2021-2021, 2021.
Calafat, F. M., Wahl, T., Tadesse, M. G., and Sparrow, S. N.: Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise, Nature, 603, 841–845, 2022.
Chambers, K. A., Husain, I., Chathampally, Y., Vierling, A., Cardenas-Turanzas, M., Cardenas, F., Sharma, K., Prater, S., and Rogg, J.: Impact of Hurricane Harvey on healthcare utilization and emergency department operations, Western Journal of Emergency Medicine, 21, 586, https://doi.org/10.5811/westjem.2020.1.41055, 2020.
Collins, M., Sutherland, M., Bouwer, L., Cheong, S.-M., Frölicher, T., Jacot Des Combes, H., Koll Roxy, M., Losada, I., McInnes, K., Ratter, B., Rivera-Arriaga, E., Susanto, R. D., Swingedouw, D., and Tibig, L.: Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risk, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, 589–655, ISBN 9781009157964, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.008, 2019.
Couasnon, A., Eilander, D., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Haigh, I. D., Wahl, T., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020.
Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., and Yan, J.: The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis, Climatic Change, 93, 379–388, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9499-5, 2009.
Day, J. W., Agboola, J., Chen, Z., D'Elia, C., Forbes, D. L., Giosan, L., Kemp, P., Kuenzer, C., Lane, R. R., Ramachandran, R., and Syvitski, J.: Approaches to defining deltaic sustainability in the 21st century. Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 183, 275–291, 2016.
DHI: 1D-DHI Simulation Engine for 1D River and Urban Modelling-Reference Manual, https://manuals.mikepoweredbydhi.help/latest/Water_Resources/MIKE_1D_reference.pdf (last access: 17 October 2024), 2017.
Du, T. L., Lee, H., Bui, D. D., Arheimer, B., Li, H. Y., Olsson, J., Darby, S. E., Sheffield, J., Kim, D., and Hwang, E.: Streamflow prediction in “geopolitically ungauged” basins using satellite observations and regionalization at subcontinental scale, J. Hydrol., 588, 125016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125016, 2020.
Du, T. L., Lee, H., Bui, D. D., Graham, L. P., Darby, S. D., Pechlivanidis, I. G., Leyland, J., Biswas, N. K., Choi, G., Batelaan, O., and Bui, T. T.: Streamflow Prediction in Highly Regulated, Transboundary Watersheds Using Multi-Basin Modeling and Remote Sensing Imagery, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR031191, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031191, 2022.
Dun, O.: Migration and displacement triggered by floods in the Mekong Delta, Int. Migr., 49, e200–e223, 2011.
Dung, N. V. and Thang, T. D.: Establishment of a large scale hydrodynamic model for modelling floods in the Mekong Delta using MIKE 11, SIWRR–Southern Institute of Water Resour. Res. Ho Chi Minh City, 2007.
Dung, N. V., Merz, B., Bárdossy, A., Thang, T. D., and Apel, H.: Multi-objective automatic calibration of hydrodynamic models utilizing inundation maps and gauge data, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1339-2011, 2011.
Edmonds, D. A., Caldwell, R. L., Brondizio, E. S., and Siani, S. M.: Coastal flooding will disproportionately impact people on river deltas, Nat. Commun., 11, 4741, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18531-4, 2020.
Eilander, D., Couasnon, A., Ikeuchi, H., Muis, S., Yamazaki, D., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: The effect of surge on riverine flood hazard and impact in deltas globally, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 104007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8ca6, 2020.
Eilander, D., Couasnon, A., Leijnse, T., Ikeuchi, H., Yamazaki, D., Muis, S., Dullaart, J., Haag, A., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: A globally applicable framework for compound flood hazard modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023.
Emanuel, K.: Response of global tropical cyclone activity to increasing CO2: Results from downscaling CMIP6 models, J. Climate, 34, 57–70, 2021.
ESA: Copernicus GLO-30 DEM dataset, https://panda.copernicus.eu/ (last access: 21 October 2024), 2024.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B.:,Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021.
Green, J., Haigh, I., Quinn, N., Neal, J., Wahl, T., Wood, M., Eilander, D., de Ruiter, M., Ward, P., and Camus, P.: Review Article: A Comprehensive Review of Compound Flooding Literature with a Focus on Coastal and Estuarine Regions, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2247, 2024.
GSO (General Statistics Office of Vietnam): https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/population, last access: 24 March 2024.
Guo, S. L.: A discussion on unbiased plotting positions for the general extreme value distribution, J. Hydrol., 121, 33–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(90)90224-L, 1990.
Hak, D., Nadaoka, K., Bernado, L. P., Le Phu, V., Quan, N. H., Toan, T. Q., Trung, N. H., Van Ni, D., and Van, P. D. T.: Spatio-temporal variations of sea level around the Mekong Delta: their causes and consequences on the coastal environment, Hydrological Research Letters, 10, 60–66, 2016.
Haque, A., Haider, D., Rahman, M. S., Kabir, L., and Lejano, R. P.: Building Resilience from the Grassroots: The Cyclone Preparedness Programme at 50, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 19, 14503, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192114503, 2022.
Hawker, L., Uhe, P., Paulo, L., Sosa, J., Savage, J., Sampson, C., and Neal, J.: A 30 m global map of elevation with forests and buildings removed, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 024016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4d4f, 2022.
Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D., Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S.: Global flood risk under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 816–821, 2013.
Hoa, H. M.: Construction of initial national quasi-geoid model VIGAC2017, first step to national spatial reference system in Vietnam, Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences, 39, 155–166, 2017.
Hoi, T. N.: Research on scientific and technological solutions on building dike system for sustainable development in the Mekong Delta, Southern Institute of Water Resour. Res., Ho Chi Minh City, 2005.
Horritt, M. S. and Bates, P. D.: Evaluation of 1D and 2D numerical models for predicting river flood inundation, J. Hydrol., 268, 87–99, 2002.
Huang, W., Ye, F., Zhang, Y. J., Park, K., Du, J., Moghimi, S., Myers, E., Pe'eri, S., Calzada, J. R., Yu, H. C., and Nunez, K.: Compounding factors for extreme flooding around Galveston Bay during Hurricane Harvey, Ocean Model., 158, 101735, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101735, 2021.
Hung, N. N., Delgado, J. M., Tri, V. K., Hung, L. M., Merz, B., Bárdossy, A., and Apel, H.: Floodplain hydrology of the Mekong delta, Vietnam, Hydrol. Process., 26, 674–686, 2012.
Ikeuchi, H., Hirabayashi, Y., Yamazaki, D., Kiguchi, M., Koirala, S., Nagano, T., Kotera, A., and Kanae, S.: Modeling complex flow dynamics of fluvial floods exacerbated by sea level rise in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 124011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124011, 2015.
Ikeuchi, H., Hirabayashi, Y., Yamazaki, D., Muis, S., Ward, P. J., Winsemius, H. C., Verlaan, M., and Kanae, S.: Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 9, 1847–1862, 2017.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Jonkman, S. N., Godfroy, M., Sebastian, A., and Kolen, B.: Brief communication: Loss of life due to Hurricane Harvey, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1073–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1073-2018, 2018.
Le, T. V. H., Nguyen, H. N., Wolanski, E., Tran, T. C., and Haruyama, S.: The combined impact on the flooding in Vietnam's Mekong River delta of local man-made structures, sea level rise, and dams upstream in the river catchment, Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 71, 110–116, 2007.
Le Quan, Q., Vasilopoulos, G., Hackney, C., Parsons, D., Nguyen Nghia, H., Darby, S., and Houseago, R.: Sediment routing though the apex of a mega-delta under future anthropogenic impacts and climate change, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9871, 2022.
Lin, N. and Emanuel, K.: Grey swan tropical cyclones, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 106–111, 2021.
Käkönen, M.: Mekong Delta at the Crossroads: More Control or Adaptation?, Ambio, 37, 205–12, 2008.
Kew, S. F., Selten, F. M., Lenderink, G., and Hazeleger, W.: The simultaneous occurrence of surge and discharge extremes for the Rhine delta, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2017–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2017-2013, 2013.
Kirezci, E., Young, I. R., Ranasinghe, R., Muis, S., Nicholls, R. J., Lincke, D., and Hinkel, J.: Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century, Sci. Rep., 10, 11629, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6, 2020.
Manh, N. V., Dung, N. V., Hung, N. N., Merz, B., and Apel, H.: Large-scale suspended sediment transport and sediment deposition in the Mekong Delta, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3033–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3033-2014, 2014.
McGranahan, G., Balk, D., and Anderson, B.: The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environ. Urban., 19, 17–37, 2007.
Mekong River Commission: The integrated water resources management–based Basin Development Strategy for the Lower Mekong Basin 2021–2030 and the MRC Strategic Plan 2021–2025, Vientiane: MRC Secretariat, https://www.mrcmekong.org/publications/basin-development-strategy-2021-2030-and-mrc-strategic-plan (last access: 17 October 2024), 2021.
Minderhoud, P. S. J., Erkens, G., Pham, V. H., Bui, V. T., Erban, L., Kooi, H., and Stouthamer, E.: Impacts of 25 years of groundwater extraction on subsidence in the Mekong delta, Vietnam, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 064006, https://doi.org/ 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7146, 2017.
Minderhoud, P. S. J., Coumou, L., Erkens, G., Middelkoop, H., and Stouthamer, E.: Mekong delta much lower than previously assumed in sea-level rise impact assessments, Nat. Commun., 10, 3847, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11602-1, 2019.
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., and Veith, T. L.: Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations, T. ASABE, 50, 885–900, 2007.
Muis, S., Apecechea, M. I., Dullaart, J., de Lima Rego, J., Madsen, K. S., Su, J., Yan, K., and Verlaan, M.: A high-resolution global dataset of extreme sea levels, tides, and storm surges, including future projections, Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, 263, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00263, 2020.
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., and Nicholls, R. J.: Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding-a global assessment, PloS one, 10, e0118571, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571, 2015.
Nicholls, R. J. and Cazenave, A.: Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones, Science, 328, 1517–1520, 2010.
Nicholls, R. J., Lincke, D., Hinkel, J., Brown, S., Vafeidis, A. T., Meyssignac, B., Hanson, S. E., Merkens, J. L., and Fang, J.: A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 338–342, 2021.
Nguyen, K. A., Liou, Y. A., and Terry, J. P.: Vulnerability of Vietnam to typhoons: A spatial assessment based on hazards, exposure and adaptive capacity, Sci. Total Environ., 682, 31–46, 2019.
Nguyen, V. K. T.: Flood dynamics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Current state and future projections, Diss. Universität Potsdam Potsdam, https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/opus4-ubp/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/51283/file/nguyen_diss.pdf (last access date: 17 October 2024), 2021.
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B. C., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A. K., Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R.,Cifuentes-Jara, M., DeConto, R. M., Ghosh, T., Hay, J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegriìa, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 321–445, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.006, 2019.
Pawlowicz, R., Beardsley, B., and Lentz, S.: Classical tidal harmonic analysis including error estimates in MATLAB using T_TIDE, Computers and Geosciences, 28, 929–937, 2002.
Ritter, A. and Muñoz-Carpena, R.: Performance evaluation of hydrological models: Statistical significance for reducing subjectivity in goodness-of-fit assessments, J. Hydrol., 480, 33–45, 2013.
Rodrigues do Amaral, F., Gratiot, N., Pellarin, T., and Tu, T. A.: Assessing typhoon-induced compound flood drivers: a case study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023.
Sebastian, A., Bader, D. J., Nederhoff, C. M., Leijnse, T. W. B., Bricker, J. D., and Aarninkhof, S. G. J.: Hindcast of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood damage in Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using SFINCS, Nat. Hazards, 109, 2343–2362, 2021.
Seneviratne, S. I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C. M., Kanae, S., Kossin, J., Luo, Y., Marengo, J., Mc Innes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M., Sorteberg, A., Vera, C., Zhang, X., Rusticucci, M., Semenov, V., Alexander, L. V., Allen, S., Benito, G., Cavazos, T., Clague, J., Conway, D., Della-Marta, P. M., Gerber, M., Gong, S., Goswami, B. N., Hemer, M., Huggel, C., Van den Hurk, B., Kharin, V. V., Kitoh, A., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Li, G., Mason, S., Mc Guire, W., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Orlowsky, B., Smith, S., Thiaw, W., Velegrakis, A., Yiou, P., Zhang, T., Zhou, T., and Zwiers, F. W.: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 109–230, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.006, 2016.
Seto, K. C.: Exploring the dynamics of migration to mega-delta cities in Asia and Africa: Contemporary drivers and future scenarios, Global Environ. Chang., 21, S94–S107, 2011.
Skliris, N., Marsh, R., Haigh, I., Wood, M., Hirschi, J. J., Darby, S., Quynh, N. P., and Hung, N. N.: Drivers of rainfall trends in and around Mainland Southeast Asia, Frontiers in Climate, 4, 926568, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.926568, 2022.
Smajgl, A., Toan, T. Q., Nhan, D. K., Ward, J., Trung, N. H., Tri, L. Q., Tri, V. P. D., and Vu, P. T.: Responding to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 167–174, 2015.
Smith, G. P.: Expert opinion: Stability of people, vehicles and buildings in flood water, Technical Report No. 2015/11, University of New South Wales, Water Research Laboratory, https://doi.org/10.4225/53/58e1dfd63f1f4, 2015.
Takagi, H., Esteban, M., and Tam, T. T.: Coastal vulnerabilities in a fast-growing Vietnamese City, in: Coastal disasters and climate change in Vietnam, Elsevier, 157–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-800007-6.00007-1, 2014.
Tessler, Z. D., Vörösmarty, C. J., Grossberg, M., Gladkova, I., Aizenman, H., Syvitski, J. P., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E.: Profiling risk and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world. Science, 349, 638–643, 2015.
Thanh, V. Q., Roelvink, D., van der Wegen, M., Reyns, J., Kernkamp, H., Van Vinh, G., and Linh, V. T. P.: Flooding in the Mekong Delta: the impact of dyke systems on downstream hydrodynamics, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 189–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, 2020.
Toan, T. Q.: Climate change and sea level rise in the Mekong Delta: flood, tidal inundation, salinity intrusion, and irrigation adaptation methods, in: Coastal disasters and climate change in Vietnam, Elsevier, 199–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-800007-6.00009-5, 2014.
Tri, V. K.: Hydrology and hydraulic infrastructure systems in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, in: The Mekong Delta System, edited by: Renaud, F. G. and Kuenzer, C., The Mekong Delta System: Interdisciplinary Analyses of a River Delta, Springer Environmental Science and Engineering, Springer, Dordrecht, 49–81, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-3962-8_3, 2012.
Triet, N. V. K., Dung, N. V., Hoang, L. P., Le Duy, N., Tran, D. D., Anh, T. T., Kummu, M., Merz, B., and Apel, H.: Future projections of flood dynamics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, Sci. Total Environ., 742, 140596, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140596, 2020.
Try, S., Tanaka, S., Tanaka, K., Sayama, T., Khujanazarov, T., and Oeurng, C.: Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCM performance for flood projections in the Mekong River Basin, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 40, 101035, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101035, 2022.
UNDRR: The human cost of disasters: An overview of the last 20 years (2000–2019), https://www.undrr.org/publication/human-cost-disasters-overview-last-20-years-2000-2019 (last access: 17 October 2024), 2020.
University of Bristol: FABDEM V1–2, University of Bristol [data set], https://data.bris.ac.uk/data/dataset/s5hqmjcdj8yo2ibzi9b4ew3sn (last access: 18 October 2024), 2024.
Valle-Levinson, A., Olabarrieta, M., and Heilman, L.: Compound flooding in Houston-Galveston Bay during Hurricane Harvey, Sci. Total Environ., 747, 141272, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141272, 2020.
Van, P. D. T., Popescu, I., van Griensven, A., Solomatine, D. P., Trung, N. H., and Green, A.: A study of the climate change impacts on fluvial flood propagation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4637–4649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4637-2012, 2012.
Västilä, K., Kummu, M., Sangmanee, C., and Chinvanno, S.: Modelling climate change impacts on the flood pulse in the Lower Mekong floodplains, J. Water Clim. Change, 1, 67–86, 2010.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen, L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3171–3190, 2016.
Vasilopoulos, G., Quan, Q. L., Parsons, D. R., Darby, S. E., Tri, V. P. D., Hung, N. N., Haigh, I. D., Voepel, H. E., Nicholas, A. P., and Aalto, R.: Establishing sustainable sediment budgets is critical for climate-resilient mega-deltas, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 064089, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fc, 2021.
Wahl, T., Jain, S., Bender, J., Meyers, S. D., and Luther, M. E.: Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 1093–1097, 2015.
Wahl, T., Ward, P. J., Winsemius, H. C., AghaKouchak, A., Bender, J., Haigh, I. D., Jain, S., Leonard, M., Veldkamp, T. I. E., and Westra, S.: When environmental forces collide, EOS, 99, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EO099745, 2018.
Wang, Q., Xu, Y., Wei, N., Wang, S., and Hu, H.: Forecast and service performance on rapidly intensification process of Typhoons Rammasun (2014) and Hato (2017), Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev., 8, 18–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.07.002, 2019.
Ward, P. J., Couasnon, A., Eilander, D., Haigh, I. D., Hendry, A., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. I., Winsemius, H. C., and Wahl, T.: Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 084012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad400, 2018.
Welch, A. C., Nicholls, R. J., and Lázár, A. N.: Evolving deltas: Coevolution with engineered interventions, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 5, 49, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.128, 2017.
Wesselink, A., Warner, J., Syed, M. A., Chan, F., Tran, D. D., Huq, H., Huthoff, F., Le Thuy, N., Pinter, N., Van Staveren, M., and Wester, P.: Trends in flood risk management in deltas around the world: Are we going `soft'?, International Journal of Water Governance, 3, 25–46, https://doi.org/10.7564/15-IJWG90, 2015.
Wood, M., Haigh, I. D., Le, Q. Q., Nguyen, H. N., Tran, H. B., Darby, S. E., Marsh, R., Skliris, N., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Nicholls, R. J., and Bloemendaal, N.: Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023.
Yamazaki, D., Kanae, S., Kim, H., and Oki, T.: A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model, Water Resour. Res., 47, W04501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009726, 2011.
Yamazaki, D., de Almeida, G. A., and Bates, P. D.: Improving computational efficiency in global river models by implementing the local inertial flow equation and a vector-based river network map, Water Resour. Res., 49, 7221–7235, 2013.
Yue, S., Ouarda, T. B., Bobée, B., Legendre, P., and Bruneau, P.: Approach for describing statistical properties of flood hydrograph, J. Hydrol. Eng., 7, 147–153, 2002.
Zheng, F., Westra, S., Leonard, M., and Sisson, S. A.: Modeling dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge to estimate coastal flooding risk, Water Resour. Res., 50, 2050–2071, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014616, 2014.
Zscheischler, J., Westra, S., Van Den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Ward, P. J., Pitman, A., AghaKouchak, A., Bresch, D. N., Leonard, M., Wahl, T., and Zhang, X.: Future climate risk from compound events, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 469–477, 2018.
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint