Articles | Volume 24, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 26 Jan 2024
| 26 Jan 2024
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Lorenzo Alfieri
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Andrea Libertino
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Lorenzo Campo
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Francesco Dottori
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Simone Gabellani
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Tatiana Ghizzoni
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Alessandro Masoero
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Lauro Rossi
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Roberto Rudari
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Nicola Testa
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Eva Trasforini
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Ahmed Amdihun
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya
Jully Ouma
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Regional Office for Africa, Nairobi, Kenya
Luca Rossi
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Regional Office for Africa, Nairobi, Kenya
Yves Tramblay
HSM, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
Espace-Dev, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Montpellier, France
Huan Wu
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Laboratory (Zhuhai), School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, 519082, China
Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
Marco Massabò
CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
Viewed
Total article views: 8,772 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 02 May 2023)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,786 | 1,727 | 259 | 8,772 | 573 | 258 | 463 |
- HTML: 6,786
- PDF: 1,727
- XML: 259
- Total: 8,772
- Supplement: 573
- BibTeX: 258
- EndNote: 463
Total article views: 4,843 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 26 Jan 2024)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,875 | 821 | 147 | 4,843 | 173 | 163 | 189 |
- HTML: 3,875
- PDF: 821
- XML: 147
- Total: 4,843
- Supplement: 173
- BibTeX: 163
- EndNote: 189
Total article views: 3,929 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 02 May 2023)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,911 | 906 | 112 | 3,929 | 400 | 95 | 274 |
- HTML: 2,911
- PDF: 906
- XML: 112
- Total: 3,929
- Supplement: 400
- BibTeX: 95
- EndNote: 274
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 8,772 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 8,597 with geography defined
and 175 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 4,843 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 4,640 with geography defined
and 203 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,929 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,929 with geography defined
and 0 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing the impacts of floods and evaluating flood risk management measures in Dolo Ado town, Somali Region, Ethiopia A. Salah et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06407-w
- An Analysis of Liberia’s Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Context of Least Developed Countries (LDCs): A Review C. Togbah https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2024.132013
- Comparing the outputs of general circulation and mesoscale models in the flood forecasts of mountainous basins S. Mahmoudi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07131-4
- Catchment’s Resilience to Flood Generation Mechanism: The Role of Soil Moisture P. Dey et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04612-4
- Flood hazard vulnerability assessment in the Sile-Sago watershed, Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia A. Ayele et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02846
- Enhancing Hydrological Model Calibration for Flood Prediction in Dam-Regulated Basins with Satellite-Derived Reservoir Dynamics C. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020193
- Fluvial flood inundation and socio-economic impact model based on open data L. Riedel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024
- Quantifying the added value of impact-based warnings for flash flood monitoring using innovative multi-source impact data J. Godet et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106058
- Impact-based forecasting to cope with riverine floods in a Peruvian Andes-Amazon basin D. Saavedra et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2634955
- Bridging the watershed–urban disconnect: a mixed-methods analysis of flood-risk perception and preparedness in Sindh, Pakistan W. Suyuhan & A. Khoso https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1742965
- Lake Victoria to the Sudd Wetland: flood wave timing, connectivity and wetland buffering across the White Nile D. Mulangwa et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5297-2026
- Dynamic spatial modelling of mass movement impacts for large areas: a data-driven framework for impact-based early warning S. Steger et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3637-2026
- Effectiveness of early-warning systems and disaster risk reduction for rural food security under hydro-meteorological hazards in Sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review D. Teku & G. Tariku https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2025.2595056
- Rising Lake Levels as a Distinct Flood Hazard: An Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Semi-Arid Inland Lake Basins N. Kiplangat et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18151887
- Convection-permitting analysis of sub-daily extreme rainfall events in the Awash River Basin S. Hailemariam & P. Coulibaly https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103788
- A streamlined flood-specific evaluation framework: Assessing African riverine early warning systems A. Gioia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106265
- Towards improved flood prediction: a review of deterministic hydrologic-hydraulic model coupling G. Mkhonta et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-07992-3
- Research gaps and challenges for impact-based forecasts and warnings: Results of international workshops for High Impact Weather in 2022 S. Potter et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105234
- Flood risk assessment in data-scarce South Sudan using a flood modeling framework T. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102743
- Operational impact-based flood early warning in Lao PDR and Cambodia L. Alfieri et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105718
- The Potential of EO Data for Enhanced Flood Monitoring and Forecasting: A Consortium Assessment A. Tarpanelli et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-026-09935-w
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing the impacts of floods and evaluating flood risk management measures in Dolo Ado town, Somali Region, Ethiopia A. Salah et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06407-w
- An Analysis of Liberia’s Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Context of Least Developed Countries (LDCs): A Review C. Togbah https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2024.132013
- Comparing the outputs of general circulation and mesoscale models in the flood forecasts of mountainous basins S. Mahmoudi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07131-4
- Catchment’s Resilience to Flood Generation Mechanism: The Role of Soil Moisture P. Dey et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04612-4
- Flood hazard vulnerability assessment in the Sile-Sago watershed, Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia A. Ayele et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02846
- Enhancing Hydrological Model Calibration for Flood Prediction in Dam-Regulated Basins with Satellite-Derived Reservoir Dynamics C. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18020193
- Fluvial flood inundation and socio-economic impact model based on open data L. Riedel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024
- Quantifying the added value of impact-based warnings for flash flood monitoring using innovative multi-source impact data J. Godet et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106058
- Impact-based forecasting to cope with riverine floods in a Peruvian Andes-Amazon basin D. Saavedra et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2634955
- Bridging the watershed–urban disconnect: a mixed-methods analysis of flood-risk perception and preparedness in Sindh, Pakistan W. Suyuhan & A. Khoso https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1742965
- Lake Victoria to the Sudd Wetland: flood wave timing, connectivity and wetland buffering across the White Nile D. Mulangwa et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5297-2026
- Dynamic spatial modelling of mass movement impacts for large areas: a data-driven framework for impact-based early warning S. Steger et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3637-2026
- Effectiveness of early-warning systems and disaster risk reduction for rural food security under hydro-meteorological hazards in Sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review D. Teku & G. Tariku https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2025.2595056
- Rising Lake Levels as a Distinct Flood Hazard: An Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Semi-Arid Inland Lake Basins N. Kiplangat et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18151887
- Convection-permitting analysis of sub-daily extreme rainfall events in the Awash River Basin S. Hailemariam & P. Coulibaly https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103788
- A streamlined flood-specific evaluation framework: Assessing African riverine early warning systems A. Gioia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106265
- Towards improved flood prediction: a review of deterministic hydrologic-hydraulic model coupling G. Mkhonta et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-07992-3
- Research gaps and challenges for impact-based forecasts and warnings: Results of international workshops for High Impact Weather in 2022 S. Potter et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105234
- Flood risk assessment in data-scarce South Sudan using a flood modeling framework T. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102743
- Operational impact-based flood early warning in Lao PDR and Cambodia L. Alfieri et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105718
- The Potential of EO Data for Enhanced Flood Monitoring and Forecasting: A Consortium Assessment A. Tarpanelli et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-026-09935-w
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Sep 2026
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint