Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Libertino, Andrea; Campo, Lorenzo; Dottori, Francesco; Gabellani, Simone; Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Masoero, Alessandro; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Testa, Nicola; Trasforini, Eva; Amdihun, Ahmed; Ouma, Jully; Rossi, Luca; Tramblay, Yves; Wu, Huan; Massabò, Marco

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Reducing the impacts of natural hazards through forecast-based...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 1

Research article

|

26 Jan 2024

Research article |

| 26 Jan 2024

Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa

Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024-supplement

Data sets

JAXA Global Rainfall Watch JAXA https://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/

Global Forecast System (GFS) NCEP https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/gribfilter.php?ds=gdas_0p25

The ERA5 global reanalysis (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=overview) H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

Land Cover CCI Product User Guide Version 2 (https://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/download.php) ESA https://www.esa-landcover-cci.org/?q=webfm_send/84

SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine learning (https://data.isric.org/geonetwork/srv/ita/catalog.search#/metadata/e33e75c0-d9ab-46b5-a915-cb344345099c) T. Hengl https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0169748

Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach (https://www.hydrosheds.org/products/hydrolakes) M. L. Messager https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603

Global Dam Watch: curated data and tools for management and decision making (https://www.globaldamwatch.org/directory) M. Mulligan https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ac333a

River Flood Hazard Maps at European and Global Scale European Commission https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/id-0054

European Commission, DRMKC - Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre INFORM https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/INFORM-Risk/Results-and-data/moduleId/1782/id/469/controller/Admin/action/Results

Model code and software

c-hydro/hmc-dev F. Delogu https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5032399

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Short summary

This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.