Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024
Research article
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02 May 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 02 May 2024

Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity

Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse

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Cited articles

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Winter storms in the German Bight are a significant coastal hazard in the southeastern North Sea. The authors use a model for enhanced seasonal forecasting accuracy. This enhancement focuses on storms identified by the highest wind speeds, determined using sea-level pressure data, during winter. The forecasting system, comprising 64 simulations initiated each November, aims to forecast these storms for winters spanning from 1960 to 2018. Initial forecasts for the first winter proved inaccurate. However, by concentrating on specific weather patterns in September and November linked to these storms, the authors refined their forecasting method. Selecting the most reliable simulations based on these patterns significantly improved the forecasting accuracy for winter storms, indicating enhanced predictability of major atmospheric changes. Their simulations might be applied to other similar applications.
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
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