Articles | Volume 24, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
02 May 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 02 May 2024
| 02 May 2024
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
Daniel Krieger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Oceanography, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Sebastian Brune
Institute of Oceanography, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Johanna Baehr
Institute of Oceanography, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Ralf Weisse
Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
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Executive editor
Winter storms in the German Bight are a significant coastal hazard in the southeastern North Sea. The authors use a model for enhanced seasonal forecasting accuracy. This enhancement focuses on storms identified by the highest wind speeds, determined using sea-level pressure data, during winter. The forecasting system, comprising 64 simulations initiated each November, aims to forecast these storms for winters spanning from 1960 to 2018. Initial forecasts for the first winter proved inaccurate. However, by concentrating on specific weather patterns in September and November linked to these storms, the authors refined their forecasting method. Selecting the most reliable simulations based on these patterns significantly improved the forecasting accuracy for winter storms, indicating enhanced predictability of major atmospheric changes. Their simulations might be applied to other similar applications.
Winter storms in the German Bight are a significant coastal hazard in the southeastern North...
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well...
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