Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Stephanie Mayer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Frank Techel
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Jürg Schweizer
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Alec van Herwijnen
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model C. Pérez-Guillén et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025
- Probability models to convert snowpack stability into the number of dry-snow avalanches in North Japan Y. Katsuyama et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104480
- Addressing class imbalance in avalanche forecasting M. Kala et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104411
- Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger-level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland F. Techel et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-3333-2025
- Decennial infrasonic array analysis of snow-avalanche activity in Aosta Valley: New perspectives for supporting avalanche forecasting G. Belli et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104521
- Investigation of the Regularities of the Influence of Meteorological Factors on Avalanches in Eastern Kazakhstan M. Rakhymberdina et al. 10.3390/atmos16060723
- Thermo-hydro-mechanics of thawing permafrost: a phase-field framework with enriched modified Cam-Clay plasticity M. Kebria et al. 10.1007/s11440-025-02684-x
- Impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps S. Mayer et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024
- A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations F. Herla et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025
- Selection of Significant Features for Snow Avalanche Forecasting K. Kaushik et al. 10.1007/s10666-025-10061-x
- A three-stage model pipeline predicting regional avalanche danger in Switzerland (RAvaFcast v1.0.0): a decision-support tool for operational avalanche forecasting A. Maissen et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024
- Predicting avalanche danger in northern Norway using statistical models K. Eiselt & R. Graversen 10.5194/tc-19-1849-2025
- Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations S. Mayer et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023
- Avalanche size estimation and avalanche outline determination by experts: reliability and implications for practice E. Hafner et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-2895-2023
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model C. Pérez-Guillén et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025
- Probability models to convert snowpack stability into the number of dry-snow avalanches in North Japan Y. Katsuyama et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104480
- Addressing class imbalance in avalanche forecasting M. Kala et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104411
- Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger-level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland F. Techel et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-3333-2025
- Decennial infrasonic array analysis of snow-avalanche activity in Aosta Valley: New perspectives for supporting avalanche forecasting G. Belli et al. 10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104521
- Investigation of the Regularities of the Influence of Meteorological Factors on Avalanches in Eastern Kazakhstan M. Rakhymberdina et al. 10.3390/atmos16060723
- Thermo-hydro-mechanics of thawing permafrost: a phase-field framework with enriched modified Cam-Clay plasticity M. Kebria et al. 10.1007/s11440-025-02684-x
- Impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps S. Mayer et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024
- A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations F. Herla et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025
- Selection of Significant Features for Snow Avalanche Forecasting K. Kaushik et al. 10.1007/s10666-025-10061-x
- A three-stage model pipeline predicting regional avalanche danger in Switzerland (RAvaFcast v1.0.0): a decision-support tool for operational avalanche forecasting A. Maissen et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024
- Predicting avalanche danger in northern Norway using statistical models K. Eiselt & R. Graversen 10.5194/tc-19-1849-2025
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 17 Sep 2025
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release...
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