Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
Research article
 | 
09 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 09 Nov 2023

Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations

Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen

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Latest update: 29 Jun 2024
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Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
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