Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3445-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Nov 2023
Research article |
| 09 Nov 2023
| 09 Nov 2023
Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations
Stephanie Mayer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Frank Techel
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Jürg Schweizer
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
Alec van Herwijnen
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
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Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Probability models to convert snowpack stability into the number of dry-snow avalanches in North Japan Y. Katsuyama et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104480
- Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger-level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland F. Techel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3333-2025
- Autoencoder-based feature extraction for the automatic detection of snow avalanches in seismic data A. Simeon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8751-2025
- Investigation of the Regularities of the Influence of Meteorological Factors on Avalanches in Eastern Kazakhstan M. Rakhymberdina et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060723
- Thermo-hydro-mechanics of thawing permafrost: a phase-field framework with enriched modified Cam-Clay plasticity M. Kebria et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11440-025-02684-x
- Assessing the predictive capability of several machine learning algorithms to forecast snow avalanches using numerical weather prediction model in eastern Canada F. Gauthier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-5033-2025
- A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations F. Herla et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025
- Creating probability maps for avalanche hazardous areas reflecting snowpack uncertainty updates T. Tanabe et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104716
- Integrating snowpack mechanical properties into snow avalanche susceptibility mapping in continental dry–cold mountain regions H. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2026.2660863
- Cooperative avalanche beacon localization using machine-learned geometric constraints and sequential regression-plane intersection T. Yonekura et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.105005
- From the Swiss Alps to the Pyrenees: Evaluating the transferability of machine learning models for avalanche forecasting C. Pérez-Guillén et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104884
- A three-stage model pipeline predicting regional avalanche danger in Switzerland (RAvaFcast v1.0.0): a decision-support tool for operational avalanche forecasting A. Maissen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024
- Predicting avalanche danger in northern Norway using statistical models K. Eiselt & R. Graversen https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1849-2025
- Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model C. Pérez-Guillén et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025
- Past and future changes in avalanche problems in northern Norway estimated with machine-learning models K. Eiselt & R. Graversen https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1867-2026
- An Explainable Bayesian-Optimized Hybrid Deep Learning Framework with Attention Mechanisms for Modeling Snow Avalanche Susceptibility I. Ahmad et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-026-02459-1
- Addressing class imbalance in avalanche forecasting M. Kala et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104411
- Decennial infrasonic array analysis of snow-avalanche activity in Aosta Valley: New perspectives for supporting avalanche forecasting G. Belli et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104521
- Impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps S. Mayer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024
- Quantifying the influence of avalanche release volume on runout probability: A case study of a mountain road section S. Oberndorfer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104734
- Selection of Significant Features for Snow Avalanche Forecasting K. Kaushik et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-025-10061-x
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Probability models to convert snowpack stability into the number of dry-snow avalanches in North Japan Y. Katsuyama et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104480
- Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger-level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland F. Techel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3333-2025
- Autoencoder-based feature extraction for the automatic detection of snow avalanches in seismic data A. Simeon et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8751-2025
- Investigation of the Regularities of the Influence of Meteorological Factors on Avalanches in Eastern Kazakhstan M. Rakhymberdina et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060723
- Thermo-hydro-mechanics of thawing permafrost: a phase-field framework with enriched modified Cam-Clay plasticity M. Kebria et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11440-025-02684-x
- Assessing the predictive capability of several machine learning algorithms to forecast snow avalanches using numerical weather prediction model in eastern Canada F. Gauthier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-5033-2025
- A quantitative module of avalanche hazard – comparing forecaster assessments of storm and persistent slab avalanche problems with information derived from distributed snowpack simulations F. Herla et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-625-2025
- Creating probability maps for avalanche hazardous areas reflecting snowpack uncertainty updates T. Tanabe et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104716
- Integrating snowpack mechanical properties into snow avalanche susceptibility mapping in continental dry–cold mountain regions H. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2026.2660863
- Cooperative avalanche beacon localization using machine-learned geometric constraints and sequential regression-plane intersection T. Yonekura et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.105005
- From the Swiss Alps to the Pyrenees: Evaluating the transferability of machine learning models for avalanche forecasting C. Pérez-Guillén et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104884
- A three-stage model pipeline predicting regional avalanche danger in Switzerland (RAvaFcast v1.0.0): a decision-support tool for operational avalanche forecasting A. Maissen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024
- Predicting avalanche danger in northern Norway using statistical models K. Eiselt & R. Graversen https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1849-2025
- Assessing the performance and explainability of an avalanche danger forecast model C. Pérez-Guillén et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1331-2025
- Past and future changes in avalanche problems in northern Norway estimated with machine-learning models K. Eiselt & R. Graversen https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1867-2026
- An Explainable Bayesian-Optimized Hybrid Deep Learning Framework with Attention Mechanisms for Modeling Snow Avalanche Susceptibility I. Ahmad et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-026-02459-1
- Addressing class imbalance in avalanche forecasting M. Kala et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104411
- Decennial infrasonic array analysis of snow-avalanche activity in Aosta Valley: New perspectives for supporting avalanche forecasting G. Belli et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104521
- Impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps S. Mayer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5495-2024
- Quantifying the influence of avalanche release volume on runout probability: A case study of a mountain road section S. Oberndorfer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104734
- Selection of Significant Features for Snow Avalanche Forecasting K. Kaushik et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-025-10061-x
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 17 Jun 2026
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release...
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