Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
Research article
09 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 09 Nov 2023

Prediction of natural dry-snow avalanche activity using physics-based snowpack simulations

Stephanie Mayer, Frank Techel, Jürg Schweizer, and Alec van Herwijnen


Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-646', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 May 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Stephanie Mayer, 05 Jul 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-646', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Jun 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Stephanie Mayer, 05 Jul 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-646', Christoph Mitterer, 05 Jun 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Stephanie Mayer, 05 Jul 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (19 Jul 2023) by Pascal Haegeli
AR by Frank Techel on behalf of the Authors (11 Sep 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (28 Sep 2023) by Pascal Haegeli
AR by Frank Techel on behalf of the Authors (04 Oct 2023)  Manuscript 
Short summary
We present statistical models to estimate the probability for natural dry-snow avalanche release and avalanche size based on the simulated layering of the snowpack. The benefit of these models is demonstrated in comparison with benchmark models based on the amount of new snow. From the validation with data sets of quality-controlled avalanche observations and danger levels, we conclude that these models may be valuable tools to support forecasting natural dry-snow avalanche activity.
Final-revised paper